Mike Huckabee's Right Decision

Mike Huckabee earned political capital last night when at the end of his Fox News show he announced he was not running for President in 2012. I have no idea what the little wobbly e-mail was all about before the show but the decision reflected his body language for the last several months.

Huckabee did not exaggerate his chance to win the Republican nomination in the opening remarks of his speech. With proportional rules this year, he would be a strong contender until the end. Early commentators just focused on his winning the 2008 Iowa caucus and said he would have a shot in South Carolina. As he noted last night, his polling showed strength outside the South, even in places like New Jersey. While his money-machine could not match a Romney,his organizational strength among evangelical Christians would have compensated.

But at the end of the day,he enjoys his new life and is earning real money for the first time. His statement about why he wasn't running also revealed some of the problems his candidacy would pose. An ordained Southern Baptist minister,he focused his attention last night on his future role of backing pro-life candidates and his record as Governor of Arkansas reflected an almost whimsical application of his religion to clemency on prisoners convicted of atrocious crimes. His genial personality hides a fairly right-wing politician and one who would have had enormous appeal.

This opens the door as she noted to Michelle Bachmann leaping into Iowa as the Crusader Rabbit of the Christianists. Observers say that she will split the heavily evangelical vote in Iowa and allow for the emergence of a moderate. That's nice Beltway spin that ignores the current reality of the Republican Party.

Prior to his decision, Mike Huckabee warned Republicans that President Obama was far more difficult to beat than they believe. He also criticized the role of the Club of Greed (Growth) in shaping the Republican agenda.

Huckabee's decision can cut both ways for Indiana Mitch Daniels. Huckabee articulated why you don't run for President, even though he said that his wife and children would have supported the decision. But it was clear that such a decision upends everything. With Mitch Daniels' family having doubts,this may just reinforce the view that 2012 may be a great time to take a pass. Others suggest he opens the door wider for Daniels.

Daniels has to carry the burden of his role as George W's budget director and will be forced to explain how we charged two wars and Medicare D on the national credit card, while he argues that debt is the greatest issue since Communism. I would humbly suggest that his record as Governor of Indiana is a forerunner to the radical platforms of Scott Walker and Rick Snyder. He's privatized the Indiana Toll Road, selling it to European interests,busted unions, attacked teachers and sold off some state services to American corporations, which has provoked a strong backlash. The man who would bring down Mitch Daniels is Matt Taibibi,author of Griftopia, who could explain Daniels' governorship in ways that people would understand.

One Republican woman, after Huckabee's decision, said that the current field gives the seven dwarves a bad name. A leftwing blogger rather perceptively recalled the Democrats' situation in 1972, when the party was divided, noting that many of the same concerns about the economy and war are very similar to today. But he noted the Democrats just blew their chance. Other Republican strategists say that it is now Tim Pawlenty's race because he would be the candidate acceptable to all factions of the party, even if he has a lackluster personality. They note that his trajectory is similar to Michael Dukakis' in 1988.

But for pure entertainment value, the Newt knows how to throw out one-liners. The Newt says that he knows how to make America like Texas, while Obama knows how to make America look like Detroit. You can take the Southerner out of the South,but you can't take the South out of the Southerner. In the last week alone, the Newt has managed to blow the race dog whistle at least once a day.

Right now The Republican field looks like a train wreck. And in the world of political operations it is beginning to be late in the day.