Obama Hits 60% in AP-Roper Poll and 2012 for the GOP

While we wait for Calista to make up her mind about when Newt is going to announce, the AP/Gf poll is out this morning with President Obama reaching his peak at 60% approval rate. 53% of likely voters poll believe President Obama deserves re-election and 43% think not. Stunningly, 45% of Americans believe the country is on the Right Track. Unbelievably 81% of Americans say they are happy. Democrats in Congress get a 43% approval rating and Republicans 32% approve( only 24% strongly approve). And the economy is the concern of 90% of Americans. The recent CNN poll shows for the first time in a long while Democrats are opening up a lead against Republicans in the generic congressional poll.

The Democratic congressional caucus believes they have a chance to retake the House in 2012. They claim they already have targeted 24 vulnerable Republican seats. If Harry Reid would force a vote on the Ryan budget, this might ensure Republicans could not re-take the Senate, which they are posed to do in 2012. House Republicans are pleading with the Obama Administration to call off the dogs on their Medicare vote, saying they want to "re-set" the discussion after they all voted for the Ryan plan, which most observers thought was a suicide note. The fact that the Ryan Plan had no chance of becoming law people are amazed that John Boehner insisted Republicans actually vote to dismantle Medicare and force Republicans to defend this vote in their districts.

To save me and everyone the grief of reading about John Boehner, I cede the entire field to Steve Benen at Washington Monthly, who is on a roll against the man. Today's contribution in the Washington Monthly alerts everyone to the lunacy of Boehner's statements on the economy and his goofiness on the debt ceiling vote. Benen is now on a Krugman-like roll, when the Nobel Prize winner just kept churning out new columns throughout the day revealing how truly aweful the Ryan Budget really was.

Now that Derek Jeter is out of his slump and Mariano Rivero just saved his 13th, Nate Silver can get back to work as elections man. On www.fivethirtyeight.com he posts his 4-part series on his meditations on the predictive powers of polling for party nominations. He factors in all polls conducted so far for each Republican candidate, the name recognition factor and in his summary the Intrade or bettors' percentages. He analyzes who he thinks is over-sold and who is under-valued.

Here's the summary of all his statistical models--classical, aggressive and two modifications of each:

Mitt Romney 27.7% Intratrade 23.9%
Huckabee 11.7% 7.5%
Pawlenty 15.6% 15.3%
Gingrich 9.8% 3.9%
Daniels 5.2% 11. %
Huntsman 2.1% 12.2%

Nate promises us a column analyzing Mike Huckabee in the near future.

Veteran GOP strategist Mark McKinnon, writing in the Daily Beast, posts his preliminary views on the GOP race in "New Gingrich Can't Save The GOP." After a lengthy analysis of why Newt isn't going anywhere, McKinnon lays out the field.

1. Mitt Romney--#1, but no juice and has no where to go but down.
2. Mitch Daniels--If in, he becomes the establishment candidate.
3. Tim Pawlenty--Everyone's Number 2, showing discipline early on.
4. Newt Gingrich--(after trashing him for a couple pages) Could shake things up.
5. Mike Huckabee--Knows he can win the primaries but also knows he would lose the general.
6. Michelle Bachmann--Could win Iowa and South Carolina.
7. Jon Huntsman--good general election candidate but difficult seeing him get through the primaries.
8. Rick Santorum--Strictly Iowa.
9. Ron Paul--the perpetual fly in the oinment.
10. Buddy Roemer/ Herman Cain--relegated to Third Tier but they lead with their heart (which is one of Mark's supreme values.

The strangest item I've heard about is that Iowa donors are pleading with Chris Chrissie, New Jersey's Governor, to enter the race. When all is said and done,this year's GOP presidential race is wide open in a way that hasn't occurred in GOP circles in modern times.

Pete Wehner at Commentary believes that Barack Obama is the easiest incumbent to beat since the 1980 election. Here we go with the Jimmy Carter analogy again.