Paul Ryan's Plan Gets Defeated in NY-26

In the perpetual Republican 26th district of New York State, a district that actually voted for Carl Palladino, the Democratic candidate Kathy Hochul won over Jane Corwin by 48%-42%. This was a race that saw Karl Rove pour money in and ads ran against the Democrat that she favored the Red Chinese, even though Corwin was heavily invested in Chinese companies. Anything to change the issue that the Republican had gone on the record saying she supported the Ryan Plan to turn Medicare into a voucher system.

By late this afternoon, the GOP were trying to spin a loss trying to avoid the Medicare problem. What is so interesting was that the GOP strategy was initially aimed at discrediting the teabagger, a wealthy businessman who is a perennial candidate in the district, thinking that his support would automatically drift to the establishment candidate. Instead, it went to the Democrat.

Citizens in the district were fed up at the end by the robocalls from people like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and John Boehner. Boehner himself came to campaign for Corwin, a well-financed and wealthy candidate, as did many other prominent Republicans.

Whether this is a one off or a harbinger of things to come for 2012 remains to be seen. But the odds on a Democrat winning this district were astronomical--people don't remember if this has ever happened before. I was quite skeptical because as the editor of the Buffalo News indicated this was a May election where the turnout would be lucky to exceed 20% and the Republican Party had all the counties wired. Local unions were working heavily for Hochul. Even though she was thought to be an excellent candidate the odds seemed too much.

What is the first take on the election is that the Democrats have found a winning formula in running against the Ryan Plan and attempts to tie all Republicans to it should yield plenty results. That's why Harry Reid's attempt to get the senate to vote on the Ryan Plan is important if the Democrats have any chance of keeping the Senate in 2012. Already Brown and Snowe have jumped ship on the Plan.