Wednesday, June 6, 2012

It's Money, Honey

++You can read all the post mortems about Wisconsin but it came down to $30 million to the Democrats' $4 million. It was a prime example of how Citizens United changed and perhaps destroyed American democracy.


++The Democrats did win back the Wisconsin Senate with John Lehman beating Van Wangaard so all was not loss.


++For Republicans trying to draw national lessons from Wisconsin, forget it. In the exit polls, Obama leads Romney 54 to 42. 


++The Democratic primary destroyed their chances of successfully recalling Walker, delaying their ability to re-gear in time. Walker's early spending was seen as determinant in the results. 


++36% of union households voted for Walker and Barrett won the women by large amounts. Walker had split his union attacks while keeping collective bargaining for some not all unions, allowing him to split the union vote. And liberals should have learned they are not a majority anywhere in the country. 


++But recalls are very tricky. The majority of Wisconsin voters believe that recalls should not be used for policy differences but for direct misdeeds. The fact of Walker being the focus of the John Doe investigation did not seep into the public consciousness. The irony is that after all this the man stands a good likelihood of being indicted. 10-20% of the Democratic voter who went for Walker did so because they do not like recalls. 


++Democrats are Monday Quarterbacking this thing by blaming Russ Feingold for not running, President Obama from not campaigning in the state and for Debbie Wasserman's lackluster performance. Personally, I would have loved to see Obama's internal polls through the whole thing.


++Walker's victory was almost entirely based on white males. This doesn't translate nationally. But Democrats should learn one lesson that Republicans now how to win and now have a united ideology. Democrats are still a coalition that has to be managed. This is a strength but also a liability when confronted by an opponent that seeks complete victory. The lesson Republicans take from this is that there is no need for compromise and that a political victory is winner-take all. There is no need to represent all the people--just your donors.


++The week prior to the recall saw Diane Ravitch appear on the Ed Show to talk about what this means for education. The wide gender gap in the Wisconsin recall was based on the fact that women are by far the greatest number of teachers. While Walker left the police alone, he targeted the teacher's unions and his policies will result in 30% pay cuts for teachers. He is purposely eviscerating public education, which Diane Ravitch said is the ultimate goal of the new conservatives. As Diane said, American education has always been in crisis but the American people used to admire their teachers but now there is a systematic plan to "privatize" all public education. And Wisconsin is one of the laboratories for this. 


++There were some good signs in organizing. A variety of democratic organizations managed to coordinate efforts well and same day registration took off, providing new voters for the November election.


++There were some dirty tricks. Robocalls flooded the state telling people not to vote. The calls were traced to the GOP phones. Probably the GOP didn't pass the memo that one of their operatives who did the same thing has been sentenced to prison in Maryland. People were told that couldn't vote unless they did in 2010. And there was a door-to-door campaign to tell signers of the recall petitions there was no need for them to vote. But the effect on the turnout and results were negligible.


++Borowitz tweeted last night--"The people have spoken and both their names are Koch." The Koch fortune funded Walker and the astroturf group Americans for Prosperity. For the general election, the Koch Brothers will spend more against Barack Obama than did the entire McCain campaign. So they come out of Wisconsin empowered to continue.

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