On Wisconsin

Only the third recall of a governor in American history is being held today in Wisconsin, the culmination of an 18 month struggle that started after Governor Walker decided to strip unions of their collective bargaining rights.


Both progressives and the Right are making this election a milestone in the on-going ideological power struggle in the United States. The polls since April have had Walker leading but as the day of the voting came closer his Democratic challenger Tom Barrett gained strength.


The Democratic organization effort has merged several organizations from the labor unions, who have lost half their strength since the union busting measures, to Organizing for America, the Obama organization. The national Democratic Party got into the game late, with Debbie Wasserman appearing in the state and Bill Clinton appearing in northern Milwaukee on Friday. The key importance to northern Milwaukee is that if it turns out in numbers its predominantly democratic electorate would eliminate any lead Walker had throughout the state. Both progressives and the Right point out President Obama's reluctance to campaign in Wisconsin, although he chose the same tactic during the recall petition campaign. 


Scott Walker has raised more money than any state-wide politician because of a fluke in Wisconsin law not limiting the funds that can be raised by a politician being recalled. He has outspent his Democratic competitor by 7 1/2 to 1. 


Scott Walker has backed away from his previous claims he will win to warning voters there will be fraud. Even Rinse Penis of the RNC, who came from Wisconsin, warned on the national media about attempts at voter fraud.


Wisconsin? Voter Fraud? In the previous recall elections there were problems with electoral officials doing things --like storing ballots in unsecured places-say their homes. 


So what are the chances of voter fraud, not perpetrated by government officials. About the same as you being hit by lightning. In 2008, when Wisconsin had the largest turnout in its history--over 3 million voters, a whopping 70 cases of election fraud were reported. The Attorney General of the state has reported that in non-presidential elections since 2000, the state doesn't get more than 20 cases of voter fraud per election. 


So what are the chances of voter fraud?  According to the Brennen Center, which studies voter issues, .00002%. 


So either Walker has some tricks up his sleeves or he is putting out the excuse if he loses and his lawyers mount an attack on a recount. Both sides are lawyered up for challenges.


While Nat Silver of the New York Times projects a Walker win, it is clear that the Democrats have a great shot at taking back the Senate, which is now tied after the last recall elections. And consider this, a head of a popular union is running for Lt. Gov. While both sides down play the possibility of a split Gov.-Lt. Governor,it is more real than not. That would mean that if and when Governor Walker is indicted, the Lt. Governor would take over.


Yesterday the Department of Justice announced it was monitoring the election in Wisconsin and will have people on the ground.


So, good luck to the people of Wisconsin.