The Drunken Irishman Speaks Sense

The blogger on the Democratic Underground "The Drunken Irishman" writes occasionally and when he does I find he makes a whole lot of sense.


This is the time in the election cycle that I worry about voter suppression and the deluge of hidden money and the Diebold voting machines. So like many there are moments of paranoid that overcome commonsense.


The "Drunken Irishman"  says despite the media attempts to compare this election to past elections where incumbents lost, this simply is not "a change election." 


While Americans might not be satisfied with the direction of the country or entirely supportive of Obama's policies, we are not approaching the clamor for change that we saw in '08,'92,'80 and '76. Even in 2000,there was more a call for change than now because of the aftermaths of the Clinton-era scandals. 


What is peculiar to change years? You have very unpopular incumbents, very unpopular incumbents challenged in their own parties primaries, and you have viable third party candidates.


In 1980, Jimmy Carter was stuck in the 30s approval rating and couldn't get above 40 and 60% of Americans disapproved of him. In 1992, George H.W. Bush had approval ratings in the 30s and disapproval in the 60%. In July 1980 and in July 1992 the incumbents were in trouble even if barely behind. Jimmy Carter had to defeat Teddy Kennedy in the primaries and George H.W. Bush Pat Buchanan. You have John Anderson running in 1980 and in 1992 Ross Perot. 


The Drunken Irishman points out that in August of 1980 Reagan led Carter by seven and although the race tightened up in September Carter remained below 40 in the Gallup Poll.


In September 1992 Clinton led Bush by 49-37.


He believes that the dissatisfaction was so high in 1980 and 1992, the politics was so toxic and the environment so nasty that even Third candidates made noise. 


He says we are not there yet. Obama's approval rating stays slightly below 50% and his disapproval rarely crosses into the majority. Despite all the negative ads, the Fox News attacks on the President, all the ground elements say this is not a change election.


I hope the Drunken Irishman is right and he makes sense.