Willard's Day

++Yesterday Romney led the national polls from 1-4%. This was the first time in this election cycle that he had done that.


++If you want to read an excellent piece on the difference between national and state polls, yesterday's Nate Silver analysis in www.fivethirtyeight.com lays out the terrain.


++So while Romney is off offending the British, there are some state polls that bear watching:


Rasmussen on Nevada:Obama 50 and Romney 45.
Quinnipiac on New York: Obama 55 and Romney 32.
Monmouth University on New Jersey: Obama 51 and Romney 38.
PPP on Michigan: Obama 59 and Romney 33.
PPP on Pennsylvania: Obama 54 and Romney 37.


++Another poll on Latino voters emerged. NBC/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo. Obama 67% and Romney 23%. The Romney number is a killer.


++The Bain and tax ads are paying off. Mitt Romney has the worse favorables of any Republican candidate in history. He stands at 35% favorable and 40% unfavorable. Even John Kerry after absorbing the Swift Boat ads still ended up the 2004 campaign with a net positive.


++Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Dish had an observation which I thought really summed up the national polls. He said that until after August the numbers really were place-holders, people just biding time before they really have to make a decision.


++ Romney's secrecy has become pathological. It has been reported that the letters between father and son have disappeared from the George Romney Library. In his interview with Brian Williams, Romney again doubled down on not releasing his taxes because it would give Democrats ammunition. Isn't there an issue about transparency and tradition or is everything partisan? Today, even people working with Ann Romney's horse could not be interviewed by the press at the Olympics. 


++You choose--observers say that the stock market will determine whether Obama wins or not; another observer tracks droughts and how they affect elections and the Midwest drought might cause Obama's defeat. 


++To counter the ads about Romney's secrecy on Bain and taxes, the so-called  Conservative Majority SuperPac released an ad against President Obama invoking  his birth certificate, college transcripts and selective service application. The trouble is that the Romney people are finding out about negative ads against Obama is that the American electorate are pretty used to the President and already have a strong opinion about him so at best they ding him a point but the ads against Romney severely hurt his favorables.