Friday, November 2, 2012

Night Time with Sam

++Don't blame it on Nate Silver. Sam Wang at the Princeton Consortium has the race--Obama 319 EV and Romney 219. Obama's meta-margin is +2.90. The Random Drift is 97% and the Bayesian Prediction is 99.6%.

++Nate Silver is playing it safe. Obama at 303.7 to Romney 234.3 EVs. 81.4% probability of an Obama win. 50.5% popular vote.

++Last time I looked Obama was ahead in sixteen straight polls of swing states and Romney tied only one.

++I'll catch up tomorrow with the last polling. PPP ,We ask America and Reuters/Ipsos say they are wrapping up their state polls.

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