Monday, November 5, 2012

Election Eve

++Over 2900 separate polls have been conducted,$6 billion spent and countless television hours reviewing the possible scenarios for the results. So after all is well and done, we will probably end up tomorrow with the same system we have today. Democrats will probably pick up a seat in the Senate, the President will be re-elected and the Democrats will pick up some House seats but the Republicans retain control of the House.

++The actual toss-up states come down to North Carolina and Florida. The remarkable story about North Carolina is that by Saturday 49.7% of all African-Americans had voted and 61% of them were women. White early voter turnout was 38.7%. Even if Romney wins this state, this is a story that should be told. Florida has turned into a Banana Republic with voters waiting up to eight hours to vote, if they can. 

++I am blind from the over 100 polls released since Friday. But let's just summarize people's predictions.

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says Obama wins with 290 electoral votes. The Senate will be 53 to 47 and Democrats will pick up 3 House seats. 

Kos of the Daily Kos predicts Obama with 332 EV to Romney 206.

The University of Illinois predicts Obama with 303.6EV to Romney 234.4. Obama's probability of re-election is 99.8%. 

At 8: 30pm EST, Sam Wang of Princeton Consortium has Obama at 309 EV and Romney at 229. With a prediction probability of 99.8%.

Nate Silver at the 538 blog has Obama at 307.2 and Romney at 230.8 with Obama at 86.3% chance of winning with 50.6% of the vote to 48.5%.

PPP Final Electoral College: Obama 303 EV to Romney 191. 44 Toss-ups. Florida and North Carolina.

Intrade: Obama 303 EV.

++Latino Decisions final poll has Obama winning72.9% of the vote and Romney at 27.1%.

++Final ABC/Washington Post poll: Obama 50 to Romney 47.

++Rand Tracking: Obama 50 to Romney 45.5.

++YouGov. National: Obama 49 to Romney 47.

++Final DailyKos/SEIU poll: Obama 50 to Romney 48.

++Final Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48 to Romney 46.

++Gallup: Romney 49 to Obama 48.

++PPP: Obama 50 to Romney 48.

++Onsight Public Affairs: Obama 50 to Romney 46.

++Last Gallup approval rating before election day: 52%.


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