Thursday, November 1, 2012

Wang and Silver

++Gallup has Obama with a favorability of 62 to Romney 55--which usually determines the election.

++Mayor Bloomberg has endorsed Obama.

++Mayor Koch has endorsed Obama with a special emphasis on his support for Israel. This should soon be a television ad in Florida.

++Electoral Vote at this hour has Obama at 299 to Romney at 206. They have 33 tied--29 for Florida and 4 for New Hampshire.

++Sam Wang went at it about Karl Rove's prediction of a Romney win by explaining the margin of error in national polls versus state polls. Wang has Obama now at 315 and Romney at 223. The meta-margin is now at +2.65. The Random Drift is 96% and the Prediction is at 99%.

++Nate Silver has Obama now at 303.2 with Romney at 234.8, an 80.8% chance of winning compared to 19.2% for Romney .50.5% in popular vote and 48.4 for Romney.

++Gallup has their unemployment numbers out today. They are at 7% unemployed. Tomorrow's job numbers are extremely important for Obama so as to avoid any slip-up before election day.


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