++Interviewed with three days left on Australian television,Allan Lichtman says forget about the polls, Obama wins. Having correctly predicted each winner since 1984, he discounted the economy as the major factor but re-iterated his 12 keys to the White House. Since President Obama has both international and domestic achievements and no major scandal,he will win. This was said after the moderator had recalled the recent close polls in the United States.
++University of Illinois projects 302.6 EV for President Obama and 235.4 for Romney. UIlli says that Obama has 281 safe electoral votes and that the probability of his winning re-election is now .996% and his chance of getting to 300EV is 58%. There is 0% chance of a tie.
++ Stanford University projects that President Obama has a 87.34% chance of re-election with the electoral votes ranging from 300 to 346.
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Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model involves 13 keys, not 12.
ReplyDeleteAlso, for you and your readers, here is a link to Sam Wang at PEC: http://election.princeton.edu/
And, of course, Nate Silver at 538: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Cheers!