Sunday, November 2, 2014

Sam Wang Toys With The Dark Side

++Sam now has GOP 52 and Dem and Independents at 48 with the meta-margin at R. 1.1%

++What I mean about toying with the dark side is that Sam's analysis is that mid-term Senate polling errors is 5X more than in Presidential years. In short,they can go either way in a big way. The GOP can romp but we won't know until it's over.

++Both Nate Silver and Sam Wang have raised the issue of the credibility of the polls in 2014. Nate Silver uses Alaska as an excellent point saying that state has a long history of unreliable polling. But both has raised questions throughout the cycle. 

++Near the end of the 2012 elections we saw a lot of GOP-sponsored polling groups trying to skew the aggregators. Ultimately,they didn't succeed but they have been present from the beginning of this cycle. And we have seen candidates more and more release internal polls suggesting they were in better positions than the latest poll suggests. In the past,political observers dismissed internal polls but this may now be the reaction to the strange flux in poll findings.

++Of course, if you are in a state where the races have not generated much excitement,the polling maybe doesn't matter. But the swing states have been bombarded by polling firms and television ads.

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