Countdown to Iowa

We heard yesterday from Ann Selzer and now it's the PPP poll. Ron Paul at 20, Romney at 19, Santorum at 18, Gingrich at 14 and Rick Perry at 10. Interestingly in the crosstabs of the poll, Romney has only 12% of the tea party vote. The thinking is that Romney wins if the tea party doesn't coalesce around a single candidate. But the poll looks like you could have a four-way tie, which would be fun.

And you know what? None of this matters. The Iowa Caucus has literally no effect on how the delegates are divided. Republican delegates from Iowa are under no rules to even consider the Caucus results.

Steve Benen is back at Washington Monthly and he suggests that whenever Romney gets pressed he always invokes the line he is a "businessman". This time in response to the challenge by Santorum. Steve suggests the Romney people must have put that line through a focus group because to many of us it sounds hollow. I would even argue it is not accurate but that's just me. The other taunt is that his opponents are "career politicians". But Romney started to run for office in 1994 and has been running ever since for something. So does that make him a "failed career politician"?

Romney decided to go back to the 2008 game plan. Remember when John McCain attacked Barack Obama as being like Paris Hilton? Now Romney claims that Obama's promises are the same as those of Kim Kardashian's, alluding to her marriage vows. The subtext of these attacks are not just to cast doubts on President Obama's promises, which he has fulfilled more than I ever thought possible, but to ridicule Obama's manhood. This is an old ally tactic of Republicans. I guess that's why they pretend to be Alpha Males threatening to bomb everyone. Threatening war is muy macho as Laurie Anderson used to say.

I would suggest Ron Paul's continued strong support in Iowa is not for his fruity libertarian beliefs but his criticism of foreign policy. If you remember, historically Republican isolationism was based in the Midwest and proclamations of further war, especially after Iraq, don't wear well in the cornfields.

What happens after Iowa? If Romney doesn't top his usual 23-25%, then the process will be longer than he thinks. It means the anti-Mitt faction is still strong and resilient. Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry have already said they would skip New Hampshire and move directly to South Carolina. South Carolina becomes the maginot line of the anti-Mitt forces. Historically, South Carolina defines the ultimate nominee.

The Conservative base is actually beginning to worry that they are looking at another 2008 and that Mitt Romney is a pale shadow of John McCain. The conservative analysis of 2008 is that McCain was a RHINO and that the only enthusiasm for the ticket was generated by Sarah Palin. With Romney the base will be less enthused even though all Republicans literally hate President Obama.

E.J. Dionne in today's Washington Post raises questions about whether President Obama can muster the almost messianic energy he did in 2008 and whether the disappointments of liberals and progressives with him will actually harm his chances of re-eletion as a mere mortal. The counter story to that is the behind the scenes planning going on at the Chicago headquarters of the Obama campaign. Without a primary challenge, Team Obama has been conducting alot of trial runs of their new technology and their grass-roots organization. They are claiming they are already in states where none of the Republican campaigns ,especially Romney's, even exist. Small donors exceed the 2008 levels now and volunteers top the numbers reached in the last campaign. But the Obama campaign is banking on a razor-thin election.

Meanwhile the RNC proudly boasts compiling 500 pages of opposition research on President Obama's statements and promises and plan to run Barack Obama ,the candidate in 2008 against the President of 2012. This seems to be behind the Romney strategy of attacking all his opponents with their own statements and skipping away without receiving return shots.

Iowa got to see over the weekend groups of people who were laid off or fired because of Bain Capital's restructuring their businesses. While this was successfully used during Ted Kennedy's campaign against Romney in the early 1990s,I didn't think this would be as successful this time around. But Romney's people stepped right into it by accusing these people of being types of "Communists, questioning the capitalist system". Now that reaction is not going to go over well.

One very strange element of the Republican race is that the front-runner is never attacked. Anyone who challenges Mitt Romney is sudenly attacked and deluged by attack ads but Romney isn't. The only one who has consistently attacked Mitt Romney has been Jon Huntsman and the DNC. This is very odd.

After seeing Mayor Bloomberg dance with Lady Gaga on New Year's Eve, I wonder what would happen if Bloomberg is the nominee of American Elect, which promises to be on the ballot in 50 states. Bloomberg actually was a businessman and he even has his Bloomber machine to brag about. What is Bloomberg's line to Mitt Romney's claim of being a businessman," I know businessmen, some are my best friends are businessmen, and Willard , you are no businessman."

An interesting theme for this year will be the third party candidates. We have gary Johnson as a libertarian. Rocky Anderson ,the mayor of Salt Lake City, running as a progressive. And Ralph Nader talking about an alliance with Ron Paul. Then with American Elect, how does the election look? Paul Begala predicted that third party candidates would receive 9% of the popular vote. Interesting.