On To Florida--Newt Versus Willard

So to recap,the Republican race comes down to a former Bishop of an old American sect with his money stashed overseas,a thrice-married,former Speaker of the House who resigned in disgrace; a man who slept with a dead child; and a man who wrote racist newsletter and is implicated in the plot by the KKK to overthrow the Democratic government of Dominica and establish a libertarian paradise. The deadlines for new entries in the primaries has expired. So that's the choice for the next President of the United States.

Michael Steele, the former chairman of the RNC, says there is a 50-50 chance of an "open" or undecided convention. Because of the change of rules this time,it may be extremely difficult for one candidate to muster enough delegates without an intense floor debate. The closest parallel is the 1976 the convention which saw an insurgent Ronald Reagan go up against President Gerald Ford.

Like then the Republican party was torn between the conservative movement and the establishment types. Here you have an insider--Newt--running as an outsider and Romney, the so-called businessman outside, basically representing the establishment. Maybe Andrew Sullivan is right that this year marks the Republican crack-up as the Reagan fusion of fiscal conservatives, national security types and social conservatives falls apart.

By this morning Romney has declared war against Newt Gingrich, bombarding Florida with ads attacking Gingrich for his failed speakership and his days as lobbyist for Freddie Mac. Romney, who says let the foreclosure process continue, held a press conference near foreclosed homes to attack Gingrich and Freddie Mac in their role in the housing collapse. Romney also invested considerable in Freddie Mac and made millions.

The fireworks chased at least Jeb Bush away. He was rumored to endorse Romney but has backed away, saying he will be neutral. Governor Scott, who had been seen around Romney in the past year, has also stated he would remain neutral.

Romney had a huge lead in Florida before the South Carolina primary. Among early voters, Romney leads Gingrich. But now, you have two polls this morning with Gingrich leading Romney by 9 and topping 40%. PPP actually has the race closer. Romney is banking on his negative ads to destroy Gingrich like they did in Iowa. And Romney started the morning talking tough, which comes off as inauthentic also.

Only two weeks ago, Romney had a 23 point lead nationally over Gingrich. The new Gallup poll has Romney down to a five point lead. The constant slippage is worrying to the establishment types who see Romney coming out of the whole process as seriously damaged.

Romney will benefit down the road from the incredible sloppiness of Gingrich. If you can not secure enough signatures in your own home state--Virginia--to get on the ballot, you have problems. What the Romney people are banking on is that Newt will blow himself up--which is an almost sure bet.

The key number to remember is 100%--that's the number of Newt's name recognition--and 60%--that the number for people who have a negative view of him. Romney is at 53% negative. Both numbers are unelectable.

So,to actually get into this process, you have to suspend belief in a lot of fact-based reality. Then your decision on why you don't like President Obama. If you are for Newt, it's because having a black President is absurd. If you are for Willard, it's because he never had a real job and doesn't understand how the real world works. Now where you are at the end of this, no one knows. It's very hard to distinguish between two types of extremism.Frankly, it is very hard imagining any of the current candidates for the Republican nomination as plausible Presidents.