Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Winner Tonight--Nate Silver and Barack Obama

Nate Silver called Romney's vote to the percentage.

Barack Obama spent the day at the Washington D.C. Car Show, where he tried out the new models from Detroit and reminded the press that GM is the number 1 automaker in the entire world after facing bankruptcy. He pointedly referred to the Republicans opposition to bailing out the auto industry.

Also, the MSM is oohing and aahing at Romney's $24 million pull last quarter. Karl Rove did better with $51 million. And Barack Obama pulls in a measly $68 million. His small donors are coming in at a faster rate and in greater numbers than in 2008.

While Willard lied again in his victory speech about how Barack Obama is to blame for the economy and he would shove "capitalism" down Obama's throat, let's not lose sight of the terrible fact for the Republicans tonight that the turnout was 15% less than in 2008. That is a terrible sign for the enthusiasm gap.

Meanwhile PPP and Rasmussen (Democratic and Republican Mutt and Jeff) both have Obama beating Romney in a nationwide poll and the gap as of now is widening.

Fox News differs from the Washington Post analysis. The Post claimed Romney won over the tea party. Fox claimed that Romney won with the seniors and the Cuban-Americans and that conservatives went overwhelmingly with Newt and Santorum. You decide who is fair and balanced.

One observation--Frank Luntz warned the GOP not to overtly campaign this year on "capitalism" because it has negative connotations. Instead emphasize "free enterprise." Romney broke that bond tonight with his triumphant whoop about capitalism.

Another observation--if you are a Democratic operative, you would notice that Gingrich tightened the Florida race with his anti-Bain, anti-vulture capitalism ads. That was his high point and then conservatives made him back away. It was clear that the average voter liked the more populist Gingrich. In the general election, the Obama campaign should exploit this.

And another observation--the lower turnout might be a direct result of the negative ads run by Romney. How much of this is a laboratory for the general election when Romney will run negative ads galore at Obama? The GOP already know that it should be a close election. Already they have gamed it out with voter suppression measures in over two dozen state, which are aimed at the young, minorities and women. In short, how much of the Romney campaign is already aimed at a controlled electorate. If Obama can't mobilize his own base because of legal obstacles, then a campaign of negative ads would further depress the turnout, favoring Romney. Not a sermon, just a thought.

And the final thought for January. Newt's spokesman Russ Tyler said tonight that the problem with African-Americans is that they had no role models. I know this is the dog whistle for Newt's campaign. But what about Barack Obama, Miles Davis, John Coltrane, Martin Luther King, Jr., Bayard Rustin, Muhammed Ali, Magic Johnson, Jimi Hendrix, Al Green, Jimmie Baldwin, Ralph Ellison, Langston Hughes, Walter Mosley,Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,Eric Holder, Colin Powell, the Tuskegee Airmen,Charles Mingus,Stevie Wonder,Thelonious Monk,for starters?






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