Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Marianne's Revenge

Newt's second wife Marianne has been interviewed for two hours by ABC News. Marianne has always said she had enough on Newt to destroy his bid for the presidency. In an old Esquire magazine article, She outllined the fiscal troubles she and Newt had during his tumultous days as Speaker of the House, his "volcanic temper", and how the House Republicans asked for an intervention to get Newt back to having focus on his job. She also detailed at great length Newt's frequent infidelities and the war the two fought over the alimony and divorce agreements. She also described how she was diagnosed with MS and Newt's callous response to this. Since she was around for Newt's rise and then fall, she has plenty of dirt on her former husband. When she first told her story,the drama came from the details of the stories rather than her own tone. This was an intimate and not flattering look at a person who believes he is transformational.

Already Drudge, who is in the Romney camp, has alerted his readers about the impending destruction of Newt. Howard Fineman claims the interview doesn't reveal more than the Esquire piece did but for the public with short memories it could be destructive for a candidate who just boasted another endorsement by an evangelical preacher. Certainly in South Carolina, it could put a wrench in the candidacy that has seen several lives since the early days when his staff quit.

Perhaps, Newt had a foreboding about this when he said yesterday that if he doesn't win South Carolina than the race is over--his or the whole nomination process?

Meanwhile CNN still talks up a Newt surge,even though their polls show Romney with a comfortable 10 point lead over Newt. People were waiting for Rasmussen's poll taken after the debate, which people thought showed Newt at his feisty best and Romney at his most evasive. The DNC made an ad showing how the audience kept responding or reacting to Romney when he tried to evade direct questions. Romney was put on the defensive all night as the other non-Mitts took pot shots at him.

Apparently, the Romney handlers felt panic. Romney went off to a fund-raiser in New York,but had to return for more stump events--this time well choreographed and the candidate had to tow the line. No one quite understood the Romney camp's fears when Romney had such a commanding lead but some suggest polling was showing Newt coming on and Romney would be dinged. The other news that will be made public tomorrow is that a recount does give Rick Santorum an 80 vote victory over Romney--thus erasing the media line that no Republican has ever won Iowa, and New Hampshire and now South Carolina. If one just disappeared, a second could to and the nomination would be a long drawn out process.

Normally, the organizational structure and money would favor Romney in the long haul. But the last week has shown Romney has enormous liabilities--the manner he attained his wealth, his refusal to release his tax returns, and now the fact he and his wife have stashed funds in overseas accounts. Even the new Tweeter, Rupert Murdoch tweeted that Romney should not have used the tax loopholes he did. In fact, leaking through Fox News have been opinion pieces criticizing Romney and his business practices. Romney thought he had sewn up the deal when Mike Huckabee signed on as an adviser to his campaign.

Newt has not managed to persuade the other non-Mitts to drop out. Rick Perry still has alot of cash even though he is fading fast. Rick Santorum's social conservatism doesn't seem to be taking hold in South Carolina where the issue seems to be jobs and the economy. But to Romney's concern, these issues have raised interest in what exactly he did at Bain and how his actions led to the bankruptcy of businesses in South Carolina, something Newt has been feeding off.

The total disarray of the Republicans at this point is shown by Stephen Colbert now airing ads for Herman Cain and actually inserting himself into the process with greater success than Donald Trump. In fact, Colbert and Herman Cain are going to hold a joint event in South Carolina Saturday.

So tomorrow is a fateful day. The ABC interview with Marianne, the last debate before the primary vote and more revelations about Romney's finances. And no one is saying they will drop out as the campaign goes south to Florida.

Then the camera shifts to the President's state of the union address on the 24th. Already the Washington Post is raising questions about peoples' doubts about the President, the direction of the economy and naturally it is meant to create the dramatic tension of whether the President is up to the task. But for President Obama the occasion is to outline his main objectives for the coming year and to raise pointed questions of what kind of society are we and what do we want to become. It is a perfect time for him to command the air of political language.

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