The Romney camp leaked the exit poll results to the networks earlier in the day. As of 8:30PM EST, Romney still had the lead but all networks already had tabulated the exit polls.
In the exit polls, over 50% didn't decide until the last two days. The primary issues were jobs and the economy--so for that you vote for Newt? Earlier polls demonstrated that over 40% of voters wanted another choice. This finding appeared also in Iowa and New Hampshire, which shows the GOP is unhappy with the present group of candidates. Newt won handily the voters who said the number 1 issue in America is defeating President Obama. The idea is , as I suggested in past posts, Newt could crush Obama in a debate.
To show how dispirited the GOP is at this point is to know that the largest political rally during the primary season in South Carolina was held by Stephen Colbert yesterday.
Ann Romney was heard on robocalls blasting Newt. Young Mormons from D.C. and northern Virginia were bussed into South Carolina for the Romney campaign. And the Romney campaign kept ads going until the bitter end. One local woman begged to see a commercial for coffee instead of the political ads.
Last night's polls showed that Newt had peaked at the right time. PPP had Newt with a 40-26 lead over Romney. ARG also had Gingrich over Romney by 14. And lesser polls had solid single-digit leads. More ominously is the PPP poll of Minnesota, which shows that Newt is leading there, where Tim Pawlenty, Romney's leading surrogate hails from.
Newt tweeted about an hour ago that he would be holding a Money-Bomb tomorrow so he can "deliver the knock-out punch in Florida."
The Romney camp quickly reversed Mitt's initial reluctance to participate in the NBC debate this coming week. It would not look good if Romney started doing a Rick Perry. By early this evening, it looks like Romney will participate in both debates next week. He has already aired $7 million in ads in Florida. Remember as we watch these primaries, Romney had a double-digit lead in Florida, as he did in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. He saw only one lead--in a state where he lives--hold up.
The problem today is that it is becoming evident that Romney doesn't wear well on the stump. Almost all his leads vanish whenever he starts to spend real time in the primary states. It is increasingly evident from the polling data that Romney's negatives appear to be going up all the time. The latest PPP poll has 35% think of him positively, while 53% have a negative impression of him. The Pew poll had 33% positive and 47% negative. Romney's ace in the whole until now has been the inevitability cloak and the passive acceptance by Republicans he would be the nominee.
Now that the Republicans are throwing negative ad bombs at each other almost every candidate's negatives will increase. But Romney seems to have a structural problem of relating to the voter. Frankly,they might like Romney as an idea in abstract, they are cold to him up front and personal. And the feeling in reciprocated.
Tonight continues the streak of Romney losses in the South. Florida would be a natural breakwater because it is a more varied state but senior citizens seem to be warming up to Newt as their warrior. Remember Florida closes the first chapter in the primary process on January 31. Then we go to small caucuses and states before Romney can land on safe turf in Michigan on February 28.
If tonight comes out as expected and we have a contested primary in Florida, then we are in for a long and dull process. The Republican establishment aren't pleased at watching this thing drag on because the attacks on each other by the candidates are doing damage to the party brand, which has already been wounded by the tea party and the congress.
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