In Search of the Great White Whale

++The Romney campaign has said that this will be the last Republican contest that can play the race card successfully--in other words of course. But the GOP is between a rock and a hard place since their primaries basically attacked Hispanics, African-Americans, women, gays and this last week native Americans. (The last was an RNC member criticizing New Mexico's Gov. Martinez, a Republican, for meeting with a delegation of Indian leaders in a state with a large native american population. Her meeting was an insult to the memory of "General Custer", whom I don't remember exactly being fondly remembered by either whites or native Americans.)

++The number crunchers at the Romney campaign has determined that for Romney to win he needs 61% of the white vote. That's why the little dance number the last two days to close the gender gap and the tripling down on the welfare ads. The Romney campaign knows his core constituency is the over 60 white male and he has been forced to do damage control on the issue of Medicare with such events as Paul Ryan showing up at a Florida retirement village with his mother who is on Medicare.

++If you wonder why Republicans have embraced Bill Clinton in this campaign--something that has puzzled me--it is because they are chasing the Bubba vote. They remember if you don't that George Wallace did very well in states like Michigan by stoking the racial resentment of the white working class. Whether this works in the 21st century remains a puzzle.

++To get 61% of the white vote, Romney will have to match the numbers of Ronald Reagan or Richard Nixon's 1972 numbers in a country with a more white-friendly demographic. 

++On the other hand, it should be remembered that Democrats have not won the majority of whites in a long time. John Kerry in his 2004 run only snagged about 44%. I believe it was LBJ that was the last Democrat to win a majority of white voters.

++In her coverage of the convention, Rachel Maddow got this Romney strategy down perfectly. The GOP is facing the demographic winter unless it can appeal to the Hispanic vote, which this party can not with its immigration planks.

++The GOP also has a very serious problem with women voters since the last two years have shown in upsurge in attacks on everything from Planned Parenthood, contraceptives, reproductive rights and equal pay for equal work. With a candidate who was a bishop of a very patriarchical religion, this gap is not going to close soon, despite his statements in the last two days. 

++For those interested in the breakdown of welfare, it goes like this--Temporary Assistance, which welfare goes by, is 31.8% white, 31.9% African-American, and 30% Hispanic. The breakdown for Medicaid is much more deceptive because this program also pays for retirement homes for the elderly and children.

++What we will see in the next few days will be a veneer of diversity with women governors,a few Hispanics and an African-American Mormon appearing. But the hall is lilly white.