When Polls Get Interesting

++The Obama campaign stopped ad buys in Pennsylvania. I think we know the answer this morning from the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. President Obama has a 53 to 42 lead in the state.


++We are told by the Washington Post and others that the CBS/NYT/Q poll over-sampled Democrats by 6%, thereby wrecking the horse race scenario we need to go forward. Obama is ahead of Romney 51-45 in Florida and 50-44 in Ohio where the President is campaigning today. Actually, Daily Kos found that the Democrats were over-sampled only in the Florida race.


++The poll found that President Obama had reached a 50% approval rating in the three states. 9 in 10 voters have already made up their minds. The majority say that President Obama made the economy better and that it would be better still in a second term.  Obama and Romney are tied as to who would better deal with the economy but that Obama is given the benefit of the doubt and isn't blamed for the state of the economy.


++Nate Silver took one poll seriously--the Ohio results--and he has downgraded Romney's chances of winning the election to 31%. Intratrade now has Romney below 40%. And people handicapping the Vice Presidential pick favor Rob Portman because Romney is seen as in great trouble in Ohio. 


++The Michigan (EPIC) poll which has shown Romney leading by 1 in the past today reflects what is considered conventional wisdom--Obama beats Romney 48-42 in Michigan.


++Under the radar, Romney made a serious misstep that will probably cause him to lose Iowa. Romney has come out against tax breaks for wind energy, something that Iowans are very actively in favor of. The state GOP is scrambling around to minimize the damage but it is a serious blunder.


++The Not Mitt index which bets on Romney not being the GOP nominee is back up over 35% because of new questions raised about Mitt's taxes by Harry Reid.


++The Romney campaign has unleashed new ads raising the fear that in another Obama administration we will face another terror attack. Somehow I just don't people buy that fear. And another ad attacks President Obama for bailing out the auto industry and somehow not helping auto dealerships. This is playing in the Midwest where I think even the EPIC poll shows this doesn't wash.


++President Obama in Mansfield, Ohio today launched an attack on Romney for the his tax plan, which would favor only the wealthiest and put a higher tax burden on the middle class. Unfortunately for Romney, Obama could cite recent studies that show this.


++My take on the CBS/NYT/Q poll is that it is very good news for the Obama campaign to see him trend upwards in Swing States and in recent polls he is starting to break the 50% barrier. This puts him in good stead before the avalanche of SuperPac attacks.