Pollpalooza

++Feel free to observe the drip, drip of the Romney tax story on the various internet sites. This story is not going to go away soon and will not have a happy ending. Donald Trump and Steve Forbes in their own ways have proposed that Romney release his tax returns in return from documents of Obama's on his college career and other items. Steve Forbes was candid in saying that he didn't understand how someone who has been running for President so long could be caught so flat-footed. The problem with their proposal is that it will make Romney look like a birthed and chase away the independent voter who could care less what name Barack Obama went to school under. This theme has gotten new juice for the GOP because libertarian Wayne Allard Root, who claims to have gone to Colombia in the same class as President Obama says no one remembers him there. Root pulled this last election and got nowhere but seems willing to try it again.

++The Romney campaign wants to turn the conversation to their Veep pick. Yesterday Drudge had everyone hopping with the prospect of General Petraeus being tapped by Mitt Romney. In my opinion, that actually would be a game-changer. Petraeus, a former Rhodes Scholar and named one of Time magazine's 100 most important personalities, would force the Obama campaign to rethink its strategy. The choice would actually signal that Romney isn't afraid of having an equal nearby. Almost everyone, including his partners at Bain, say that Romney basically has been surrounded by yes-men his whole career and that many of his mistakes can be contributed to a very rigid CEO model of operation. Petraeus would also have erased the double digit lead by Obama in the field of foreign affairs and national security. The choice also would have given comfort level to the Republican establishment, which quietly is critical of the Romney campaign so far. The problem is that Petraeus has an excellent relationship with President Obama and is a self-proclaimed Rockefeller Republican. But alas, the buzz was killed when General Petraeus issued a statement late in the afternoon he did not want to run for any office in the near future.

++Which boils the field down to safer picks. Conservatives are pleading with Romney to solidify his base by picking Paul Ryan. But the Wisconsin congressman is simply too toxic with his proposals to turn Medicare into a voucher system and cut entitlement programs while increasing defense. Romney has danced close to the Ryan Plan but recently has sought to distance himself from its more outrageous proposals.

++So Nate the Great appeared on the Last Word and pointed out that Rob Portman's Wikipedia entry has been changed over 100 times in the last few days and is now locked, suggesting that Portman is the overwhelming choice. Today conservatives wrote op-ed pieces pleading with the Romney campaign not to pick Portman, who is a Washington insider with very close ties to both Bushes.

++Tim Pawlenty is mired in tax problems of his own,which would only magnify the Romney tax issue. 

++Obviously, the Romney campaign desperately needs Ohio so Portman is very high, if not essential to  his possible election. At 57, he looks and sounds like a reasonable technocrat but would not add any excitement to the campaign. The negative is that he is associated with both Bush Administrations and is almost totally an economics man.

++So let's get to the polls:
Electoral College. Princeton Consortium, which matched Nate Silver in 2008 for accuracy, has 300 safe EVs for Obama, 191 safe for Romney with 47 toss-ups. Without toss-ups, the EC vote is 332 to 206 for President Obama.

TPM today has 323 EC for Obama and 191 for Romney. Virginia is now considered "lean Obama", while Colorado is a "toss-up".

++National polls: Reuters/Ipsos Obama 49 and Romney 42 with Obama being better on both the economy and taxes.
    PPP is Obama 48 to Romney 46.
    ARP on voters over 50: Obama 47, Romney 47. Baby-boomers favored Romney by 7, retirees Obama by 4. Males Romney, women Obama.

State polling:
Cap/Corr/Granis on Virginia  Obama 44 Romney 40. But over 50% want Romney to release his taxes.
Qunnipiac Virginia Obama 49 to Romney 45.

Quinnipiac Colorado : Romney 50 and Obama 45
PPP Colorado:             Obama 49, Romney 43
Rasmussen Colorado: Obama 47, Romney 47

PPP North Carolina:    Obama 49, Romney 46

Quinnipiac Wisconsin: Obama 51, Romney 45
Marquette Wisconsin:  Obama 50, Romney 45

++So little has changed but the campaigns are heating up and Republicans are fighting over who will be allowed to speak at the Convention.