Polls and the Convention

++538 (Nate Silver), Princeton Consortium (Sam Wang) and Electoral Vote.com remain fairly stable with Obama leading from 299 with Nate Silver to 300s with the others. Enthusiasm for both parties is about the same without the lags we saw in 2010. Obama had good news with ABC,CNN and Rasmussen all putting his approval rating at 50%. This election has one of the fewest number of undecideds of any election. 

++The Wall Street Journal tried to explain the strategy behind Romney's playing the race card with the welfare reform ads saying that the Romney campaign had failed until recently to get any traction among swing voters. Played strategically this helps him with lower middle-class voters and serves to excite his base. The ad reminds people that President Obama is an elitist who believes that government should work for the people and he is a member of a minority, which is associated with welfare. The Romney campaign claims this is working. 

++Gallup has found that Obama is now 9 up on Romney concerning taxes and healthcare. This means he erased the gap of the previous month on the issues.

++Andrew Sullivan of the Daily Dish found out that Rev. Warren misled in his reasons for canceling the Saddleback venue. The Obama campaign was not that interested in it and Romney's campaign never agreed to it.

++Polls show a craziness right now as several local polls with little track record are surfacing showing different results--Romney in the lead in Michigan and a tie in Ohio, the latter turns out to be a mail in poll, which has an off and on record. In the CNN survey of Florida ,one statistic should bother the Romney campaign, the very slight lead he has in the over 50 crowd, which shows the Medicare issue is not going his way. One wonders what the result will be on the Medicare plank of the platform being released.

++The Romney campaign expects a bounce from the convention to take the lead. But how much of a bounce can it be when the Democrats open their convention only a few days after his acceptance speech.

++SURVEY USA has North Carolina tied up and CNN has made it a toss-up state. 

++Florida continues to try and suppress voting in the counties where Obama won in 2008. These counties are called "civil rights" counties and full under the Voting Act. A lonely Republican is trying to defy Governor Scott on his attempt to curtail early voting hours.

++The delegates for Ron Paul have not calmed down. They are even more enraged that a Presidential candidate (Romney) can veto and replace delegates who oppose him. A Paul delegate spoke at a meeting just north of Tampa and received a standing ovation from the Texas delegation. Apparently, they will try and fight this on the floor--but not at a time anyone can see.

++Andrew Sullivan wrote today that Obama got the election he wanted--a choice and he also said Obama had the advantages on all issues but the deficit and debt, which even Sullivan couldn't believe people could believe Romney. He suggested Obama do something bold like embrace Simpson-Bowles, the Catfood Commission. I don't know about that but he has good advice that President Obama must make himself the positive choice.

++Willard fine-tuned his stance on abortion again tonight saying that abortion was OK if the mother's health was endangered. How long can they dance around this issue?

++A Mormon Bishop will start the prayers for the Convention, an evangelical will also participate and a Roman Catholic archbishop will close the show.