Morning Coffee--Burundi

++I know The GOP Convention speaks about the oppressive taxes restraining economic growth. But let's check the fact that an eleven year average--Bush and Obama administrations--show federal revenues are 16.9% GDP, the lowest since 1959. Most recently, its is more like 15.8% of GDP, the lowest level since 1950. On the other hand, federal spending is 23-24% of GDP, or about the same as during Ronald Reagan.

++Missing from the television coverage last night was the roll-call of the delegates, which was deliberately put off prime time. The reason was fear that one might see dissent. I miss roll-calls because I enjoy each state extolling their virtues and what if there are other votes. By the time you wrap up the roll-call, there is a voice vote for the nominee by acclamation. What you do not see is any democratic process. This also applies to the Platform. In this case the GOP platform is the most right-wing in my lifetime and I lived through the 1964 Goldwater campaign. A point about the Platform was that it was approved and written with the guidance of the Romney campaign.

++Ann Romney had to speak and try and "humanize" Willard because the Washington Post/ABC poll showed Willard only had a 31% favorable rating. That is a disaster. So how did she do? After her speech, CNN had an informal poll that showed 42% were less likely to vote for him; 29% the same; and 29% more likely to vote for him.  

++While Ann Romney was a plus for Willard, she told some tall ones like he risked going into business--no he was guaranteed a substantial income when he was asked to take over Bain and if he had failed, he was guaranteed his old job back and significant compensation. The problem for Romney is the issue of authenticity and you just can't buy that.

++The Romney people are downplaying Willard's unfavorability as a factor in this election because they say the American people just want someone to manage the economy. But think about it. We have to listen to this guy for four years. We have to see his children. And we have to be able to trust his judgment. That's why the like ability factor is not as trite as the Romney people claim. Even 33% of Republicans found Obama more likable.

++What we missed was the raucous rebellion of the supporters of Ron Paul. This may seem irrelevant to the election but the followers of Ron Paul are absolutely livid by the heavy-handed rules change that allowed the nominee to replace unfriendly delegates. While some internet media outlets captured their anger,their own libertarian websites are in open revolt against the Republicans. They are urging people either not to vote or to vote libertarian. Oh well, but outside observers miss the Paulites organizational ability and their appeal to younger voters. The GOP just deprived themselves of a grass-roots organizing tool.

++Democrats are steeling themselves for the GOP bounce after the convention. The real fear of voter suppression and being outspent by aging billionaires have everyone on edge. So let's put things in perspective. After John McCain gave his acceptance speech,polls had him leading Obama 274-243. The Sky was falling. President Obama today is in a better position than he was in 2008.

++Nate Silver at www.fivethiryeight.com says the polls have stabilized and that Obama is 1.6% in the lead. In polls conducted before last night, Obama led in 8 and Romney in 2. Romney only led those by 1 pt. 

++So as of last night, what did the electoral college look like:
Election Projection: Obama 303, Romney 235
Nate Silver:  Obama 298.1 to Romney 239.9
FHO:            Obama 332    to Romney 206
Princeton:     Obama 303   to Romney 235
RealClear Politics: Obama 221 to Romney 181 and 136 toss-up states.

++Watch for Voter suppression efforts in Ohio and Florida. These are must states for Romney and the Republican governors are committed to delivering the state for him. Yesterday, the Republican head of the election commission fired the Democrat in an urban county because he was going to continue early voting, which is used predominantly by African Americans in his district. In Florida,Gov. Scott continues his feud with the local electoral boards. 

++I didn't think Chris Christie did much for his political future last night. He looked like a beached whale and someone about to have a coronary. His divide and conquer rhetoric and his bombastic tone does not carry well.

++Most people missed Nikki Haley of South Carolina but if you heard her she attacked labor unions. While we are used to Republican attacks on labor unions, it is usually muted at a convention because Republicans used to depend on cops, firefighters,teamsters and even some teachers. I guess the accent on voting white is supposed to make up for this.

++When I was out in Ohio, the Romney campaign attacked President Obama in coal country. Point of fact--the coal industry has added 15,000 jobs under Obama's watch. But the visual was of Romney speaking before coalminers and their families, accenting Obama's problem in Appalachia. Yesterday, the coalminers went public and complained that they were compelled to attend the rally and even forced to contribute to the Romney campaign by the mine owners. I think this heavy-handedness will tip Ohio even more to Obama.