++Yesterday's interim agreement was incredibly substantial, not just the "first step" that both Kerry and Obama referred to it as. Today's New York Times has a front-page story on most of the details contained in the deal. The White House last night issued a press release listing in great detail all the ingredients of the deal, which entails a six-month freeze on the nuclear program,a suspension of the plutonium reactor which France raised at the last meeting, conversion of the enriched uranium into a more oxidized version,the dismantling of the most modern centrifuges and invasive inspections by the UN at every nuclear site on a daily basis. And that's just sum of it. And that's probably all you will get to know as the media coverage goes into full throttle.
++John Kerry insists there is no right to enrich contained in the agreement. Most observers agree that Iran and the world powers agreed to fudge this issue. As a matter of fact, the Non-Proliferation Treaty to which Iran adheres allows them to enrich below weapon grade levels. Iran wanted this stated in the agreement but the Western countries balked. The concession from the negotiating powers is that some of Iran's frozen assets could be accessed. The number is estimated at $6-8 billion. But the structure of the Iranian sanctions remain and could be tightened if a full agreement isn't reached.
++So the interim agreement is far more extensive than anyone has a right to expect. But that hasn't stopped Bibi Netanyahu from proclaiming that this deal made the security of the world in worse shape than before. He basically called this the greatest diplomatic triumph of Iran since the Revolution and claimed that this allowed Iran to escalate the enrichment process, when in fact it reverses it. Bibi was quick to reach out to Time magazine to warn of a "suitcase bomb" exploding in Washington or Madrid in five years time. (Five years seems to be the magic number starting when the nuclear program was revealed in 2002. So now we are up to 2019,pretty good.) At least it isn't has bad as Tony Blair's "only hours" warning about Saddam's nuclear weapon.
++In case you have missed it, the Administration has to figure out how to dispose of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile since al their weapon sites have been destroyed. The same people who are protesting this Iranian deal are the same who criticized Obama for making a deal with Putin over the chemical weapons. They are also the same people who opposed the President on his military plans to attack the weapons' sites. Yet,they are now the people objecting to the Iranian deal.
++The Republicans were first out of the gate, claiming that the Iranian deal was a distraction from Obamacare. Thinking this was wacky, it was repeated again this morning by the House Whip Who can't count McCarthy. Eric Cantor repeated Bibi's points that the agreement countered the Security Council resolutions on the Iranian nuclear plan. Jennifer Rubin mocked that uranium enrichment pays--referring to the part of the agreement where Iran could use its own money again.
++Since President Obama's nuclear agreement with the Russians, every diplomatic agreement reached by this administration has been opposed. In this case,they had to bring out Zbig and Brent Scowcroft to urge the Senate to support it for now. Unfortunately, neither man is identified as a supporter of Israel.
++President Obama said in his remarks last night that he would not seek any further sanctions. But there are Senators on both sides of the aisle who will.
++Chris Dickey of the Daily Beast, who was at the negotiations,hailed the Obama Administration for backing away from war and finessing involvement in the on-going Shiite-Sunni civil war. He did say that while this agreement might lead to greater stability in the region both Israel and Saudi Arabia are miffed at the United States.
++Watch the next few weeks of vitriol against the President for making this deal. There is going to be a full-court effort by AIPAC, the Religious Right and others to either endorse increased sanctions or just proclaim that Obama sold us out once again. Ari Fleischer,the former spokesperson for George W. Bush, claimed you can spell abandonment without Obama. John Kerry miffed by this on his return retorted that if the United States had taken up Iran's offer to negotiate on this in 2003, then the Iranian program would not be as large as it is today.
++We will experience people talking in bad faith. If someone objects to parts of the agreement,they should get in the weeds to argue that. But most of those who advocated negotiations in the first place really didn't think they would bear fruit and then The Devil would make us Bomb Iran. Now that there are bearing fruit,it seems to me those people should make it clear that they really want another war in the Middle East.
++Before this agreement, the majority of Americans wanted a deal. How that holds up in the upcoming attacks on it is anyone's guess. But Juan Cole, with whom I have few agreements, is right--the deal stops the Neo-Con agenda in its tracks. If democratization through war got trashed because of the last administration,the idea of regime change and wars of adventure just got sent to the ash heap of history.
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