Wednesday, November 6, 2013

What's It All About, Alfie?

++You will read alot of articles on the remaining of last night's elections through the country. None of them are meaningful. There were no trends and nothing to learn from.

++We were spared an utter disaster with T-Mac defeating the Cooch. Last night Democrats were going nuts because T-Mac took 2 hours and forty-five minutes to defeat the Cooch. What if they resided in countries where I monitor elections? You wait a week. Don't worry, folks, Terry won, albeit by the smaller margin than expected. 

++What was interesting is that the turnout was 37%, not the 40+ that was anticipated. The GOP felt getting it anywhere between 30 and 35 would mean they would win. Basically,18.5% of the Virginia population are insane. 

++The worst part of this election was that Herrin is tied with truly crazy Obenshain for Attorney General. Obenshain wanted women who experienced miscarriages to report them to the police within 24 hours or face a year in prison. This looks like it will go to a recount. 

++McAuliffe in his victory speech promised to extend healthcare through Medicaid, which would provide 400,000 Virginians with health insurance they do not have now.

++The slow burn is on the GOP side. McAuliffe broke a 73 year tradition of Virginia electing a governor not of the President's Party and the 100 year streak of a Democrat winning with a Democratic governor.

++The Cooch says he was betrayed by the national GOP,whose funds dried up when the government shutdown was happening. His manager complained that Chris Christie didn't campaign for him. His strategist said that his anti-Obamacare message was taking hold and they would have won if the election was at least a week away. Since this was a complete tea party ticket, the teabaggers blame the establishment Republicans who fled from them. But the Cooch lost and he can't come back anytime soon.

++Chris Christie became the Media's leading presidential candidate with his win in New Jersey. But raising the minimum wage won by a bigger margin than Christie and he still had no coattails leaving the Senate and the Assembly in the hands of the Democrats. His bombastic victory speech was very short on anything he would do for New Jersey. Millions will pour into his coffers for his presidential campaign but the teabaggers and conservatives still don't accept him.

++Bill de Blasio became the first Democratic mayor of New York City in 24 years. His vote count was zooming over 70% the last time I looked last night--outperforming all his polls. As Jason Linkins at Huffington Post reported it is By-By Bloomberg. de Blasio's victory was a repudiation of Bloomberg.

++While the 2009 off-off year elections were the first signs of a reaction against Obama which would find full force in 2010, this year's doesn't exhibit any such pattern. What we do know from Virginia is that the GOP will campaign against Obamacare in 2014 because they have nothing else left. Even with the sabotage by Republican states and Congress, a word to the wise: you may end up fighting something that by mid-year will be slowly perceived as a positive.

++Democrats can be comforted by wins in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina in city elections. Florida feels like things are being put in place for Democrats to win back the statehouse and some seats in Congress. Also, a pro-labor Mayor was elected in Boston.

++The Virginia victory by Terry McAuliffe shows that Democrats can win by mobilizing their base. Independents simply were not much of a factor here. 

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