Charlie Cook On The Democrats' Demographic Edge in 2016

++Charlie Cook writes in The Atlantic on the Democrats' demographic edge in 2016.

++Using his own Cook Report study, he reminds us that in 1980, nonwhite voters were only 12% of the electorate. Ronald Reagan won 56% of the white voters and was elected in a landslide.

++In 2012, nonwhite voters were 28% of the electorate. Mitt Romney took 59% of the white vote and lost by 4%.

++In 2016, whites will drop from 72 to 70%. African-Americans will be steady at 13%,Hispanics, 11% and Asians will be 6%. If such was the demographic in the last election, President obama would have won with 5.4%.

++The GOP does best with white without college degrees. This is the only group that will shrink in 2016. President Obama wooly only 36% of them, while winning 43% of whites with college degrees.  White College Voters will increase to 37% in 2016.  Whites without college degrees will shrink by 35 to 33%. 

++The GOP has a shrinking white problem. Their senior conservative base is now being supplanted by the college educated millennials who have different cultural attitudes.

++Cook pointed out that if Romney did 10pts better with Hispanics he would have only won one additional state. 

++Cook tries to be upbeat for Republicans saying that if they did 3 points better across all 5 sectors of the electorate, they could win 7 more states, for a total of 305 electoral votes.

++Bill Schneider, a seasoned electoral observer, noted that the base of the GOP is the old America and that the New America will come to the front in 2016. That doesn't mean an automatic Democratic win because Charlie Cook pointed out that several congressional candidates in 2014 did perform better in all five sectors.

++A GOP observer after the 2014 election wrote that given the present makeup of the electorate,even after winning historic victories,the Democrats stand at 247 electoral votes and that the Republicans would have to sweep the swing states and take one of the blue to barely surpass 270 electoral votes.

++That is why you see the increase in voter suppression laws and the emphasis on campaign finances to mobilize the shrinking GOP base.