++Nate Silver was blasted yesterday for his latest Senate predictions because he was supposed to show a Republican wave. Instead, he shows the Democrats might keep the Senate by a sliver.
++In what he calls the competitive states, he shows the following:
Iowa: 75% Democrat
Michigan: 55% Democrat
Arkansas: 70% Republican
North Carolina: Even
Alaska: 55% Democrat (I agree)
Louisiana: 55% Republican
Georgia: 70% Republican
New Hampshire: 55% Democrat
Virginia: 75% Democrat
++That means Republicans would win +2-3 seats and come up short. I disagree with Silver on Louisiana and hope for the best in North Carolina.
What's interesting is that in Arkansas Pryor is surprising everyone by consisting outpolling Cotton.
++But it is early days. Silver is still data-based. Cook has Iowa leaning Republican and the rest toss-ups. For instance,pollsters say that Obama approval rating will matter in the mid-term. Which one? The Post had him at 41, the NBC/Wall Street Journal had him at 44, Rasmussen had him at 48.
++The contest in numbers gets real in June when the flood of polls will start coming out.
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