++This is Karl Rove's third straight attempt to procure a Republican majority in the Senate. The Amazon Post has projected the GOP with 53 seats and many commentators like Michael Tomasky have written what a nightmare that would be. But Martin Longman at Washington Monthly did a personal post yesterday about why he believes --at this moment in time--the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
++First a commercial break. Rasmussen has Senator Merkley with a ten point lead over GOP nominee Dr. Monica Wehby--47-37, with 6 for another candidate. Because of the stalking charges against Wehbey didn't register until the majority voted,the GOP has been optimistic about the race.
++First, the conclusion of Longman's analysis. He thinks the Democrats have enough padding not to fall below 49 seats. Biden would be the controlling vote. I tend to agree with him but differ on other conclusions.
++Basically, he feels that South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia are lost or at least the GOP has large advantages.
++He is concerned about Mark Begich of Alaska and Kay Hagen in North Carolina. I think Begich has waged a good campaign so far and shows it in polls.
++He is bullish on Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.
++He notes the strong polling of Michele Nunn in Georgia and Alison Grimes in Kentucky. Personally, I think the Dems will win one of these seats.
++Like other Democrats and pollsters, he tends to think Michigan isn't up for grabs. I tend to think the GOP's Land is too competitive at this stage and the money will roar in.
++Midway in his article, he notes that Democrats will lose 3 and gain 2, if something horrible does not move against the Democrats in the coming months. I think that is a little too optimistic.
++Since President Obama and I share the same poor summers,I try to suspend my pessimism.
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