++The Washington Post tried to explain why the GOP's probability for taking the Senate dropped to 55%. Their explanation was that probabilities increased slightly for candidates like Michelle Nunn, which lowered the GOP odds but not by much.
++Now Sam Wang enters with his new assessment that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate with 51 seats to the GOP's 49. Today's snapshot has the Dems at 90% and their election day probability as 85%.
++The change, according to Wang, is the weird situation that developed yesterday when Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the race for Senate in Kansas and threw his support to independent Greg Orman, who has been both a Democrat and a Republican. In a two-way race, Orman has a ten point lead over Roberts and has been a big fund-raiser as well as a wealthy man himself. Wang puts Orman as a 85% favor over Roberts, who beat a tea bagger in a contentious election.
++This scenario had been suggested by Martin Longman at Washington Monthly this past week. Chad Taylor had actually been closing in on Roberts but Orman's continued strength made the move logical.
++In other news,a CNN/ORC poll, conducted before Mitch McConnell's manager had to resign because he had received funds from Ron Paul to switch his vote in the Iowa Caucus from Michelle Bachman, has McConnell at 50% and Alison Grimes at 46%. 5% said they were undecided. So Mitch has solidified his race but may experience some slippage if the scandal affects him.
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