Sunday, May 31, 2015

The Month Ahead

++Remember President Obama has had terrible summers. Remember the BP oil spill. Let's hope this one is better.

++We have the Iran Nuclear deal to look forward to which will go down the wire with the boo-birds filling up the airwaves all along.

++We have SCOTUS on the healthcare subsidies. It doesn't matter that Olympia Snowe,a Republican who worked on it said that no one ever conceived that people should be penalized by living in a state that didn't create an exchange. Readers of this blo knows that I don't think the case has merit because the pain tiffs do not have standing, something only raised once in the oral hearing. 

++I think the democratic websites are nuts to believe that Republicans will be blamed if subsidies are ended. This would affect some 8 million people in red states. So blame the black guy. It'll work.

++The health insurance industry received a report from their actuarial departments that the whole industry is jeopardized if the subsidies are withdrawn. The national insurance market will become so unstable and unpredictable that the whole industry will become unhinged after getting used to Obamacare. I wrote at the beginning of the Obamacare fight that the health insurance industry which poured billions into lobbying against the new law were warned by their own accountants that the industry could not keep raising rates because the market would shrink so much that the industry would be in jeopardy.

++Linda Greenhouse perceptively wrote when the Supreme Court put Burweil on the docket that it was purely a political decision.

++Next up this month or first depending on whether the Supreme Court wants to pacify the majority of the nation is same sex marriage or marriage equality. This one only made it to the Court when Scalia's former clerk was the only judge who ruled against same sex marriage.

++Make no mistake these cases are about President obama and whether the Court can destroy his legacy.

++Look for the executive orders on immigration to make it to the docket late this year or next.

++Then we go abroad for the Middle East and the new strategy on ISIS. It's sort of hard when the Iraqi army is now at half the strength it was when this fight began. You will hear the howling about Shi'ite militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This will make its way into the presidential election. 

++THis month will determine the remanding days of the Obama presidency. If the Iranian nuclear deal flies,and he wins both court cases, it is blue skies. If not, it will be a time of grinding it out.

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