The Five Paths to Re-Election

Sam Stein wrote in today's Huffington Post about the briefing top Obama campaign officials gave for reporters in Washington, where they outlined five different paths they can pursue for President Obama to reach 270 electoral votes.

As Stein writes, David Axelrod and campaign manager Jim Messina pledged to follow the numbers-based approach used by former campaign manager David Plouffe in 2008. In my mind, that was as perfect a campaign I have ever seen run in the United States. Following that successful strategy,the two men have gamed out several different regional strategies to help them reach 270.

The campaign starts with the idea of holding all states won by John Kerry in 2004--not a guaranteed proposition. Then there would be the "West Path", which assumes Obama would win Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Added to Kerry's 246, you would have 266. Add in Iowa's six electoral votes and you have 272.

The second path is the "Florida Path:, which would mean winning that state and its 29 electoral votes, which brings you to 275.

The Third path is the "South Path", which involves North Carolina 9with its 15 electoral votes) and Virginia (13) for a total of 274.

The fourth path is the Midwest path, which involves adding Ohio ( and its 18 electoral votes) and Iowa (wits its six) for 270 on the nose.

The the campaign has the "expansion path", which has President Obama losing critical states such as Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (a total of 24 votes) and failing to win Florida and Ohio, which he won last time. But by re-winning Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and adding Arizona with its 11 votes , Obama gets to 272.

The re-election team said they were not tied to pursuing any of these paths. But it is clear they have a great deal of flexibility.

Axelrod thought that someone like Romney with his history in private equity is not going to be a compelling candidate in Ohio and Pennsylvania. He did say that newt would have "less to explain" in the Rust Belt but that Romney could play well in Michigan, where he grew up and his father served as governor. Of course, Michigan's recent good fortunes are the consequence of President Obama saving the auto industry and Governor's Stenholm's jobs policies but the Republican is likely to get the credit.

Stein's point is that the Obama campaign has more conceivable ways to victory than coventional wisdom suggests. I've noted again that the Obama Campaign seems to be opening offices in the Dakotas and in Georgia, which indicates they are playing a larger field than today's poll numbers would suggest possible.