Nate Silver on the Real G.O.P. Dark Horse--None of the Above

I had a Democratic friend who always fantasized about a brokered convention manipulated by men smoking cigars in private rooms. He thought the Democratic Party had been ruined by the open convention rules adopted when George McGovern won the nomination. So he longed for the days when the "party establishment" would get together and pick a winning nominee.

Something like this is happening in the Republican Party where people like Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson are hoping that someone like Paul Ryan or Mitch Daniels will enter late in the day and start winning primaries one after another. If not, then the Republican establishment should ban together to choose someone--like say Jeb Bush.

Nate Silver in his December 9th column dismisses the idea of a latecomer but he does raise the issue of a so-called "brokered convention". Why? The Republicans are dangerously close to have none of their candidates acceptable to the rank--and--file voters and the party establishment. What happens in this case, Nate says there are few precedents.

A recent Gallup poll asked Republican voters directly which candidates they'd consider acceptable nominees. Only New Gingrich and Mitt Romney passed the test for now. In the last presidential cycle, Gallup asked the same of Republicans and Democrats and basically both parties each had four acceptable candidates. As Nate says, you only need one at the end of the day but depending on how nasty the primary fight becomes both Romney and Gingrich might end up being unacceptable.

Romney, according to the Gallup Poll, already is at 41% unacceptable and his favorably rating has dropped. Silver claims that Romney doesn't have much margin to spare and he could go under if he makes a gaffe (like last night) or starts a dirty campaign. For an historical point of reference, Romney's approval ratings as Governor of Massachusetts went from a 61% and fell every year even reaching 14% before ending at 36%. Romney as a politician always loses popularity. To know him is not to love him so he stands in real danger.

Newt has alot of baggage as the Romney ad tells us.Earlier in the cycle, his favorability rating was low and it can descend there again. And he is taking fire from everyside and the conservative pundits. So let's say he survives all this, which last night demonstrated he should. He wins Iowa and then places a respectable second in New Hampshire and he continues to lead in the polls. Right now it looks like he has huge leads in South Carolina and Florida.

Now the same polls with Newt maintaining huge leads over Romney show he would lose South Carolina and Florida to President Obama by significant margins. So the Republican establishment definitely notices it.

Now as Nate Silver writes,if Gingrich comes out of New Hampshire and is considered unacceptable to a large portion of the Republican establishment we are now in totally uncharted waters. The deterrent to a Jeb Bush or a Paul Ryan entering the contest is that there is no quarantee they would win and a loss would be an unmitigated disaster to the Republican Party. Nate says that even in the 1972 and 1976 Democratic races there was not the degree of such an acute confict between the rank-and-file and the establishment.

So Nate says that the odds of a dark horse candidate or brokered convention increases with the following:

1. Newt leads the delegate count, but does not have more than 50% of the total.
2. Newt hold more than 50% but he involved in a significant gaffe or scandal later in the campaign.
3. Mitt Romney has performed poorly enough in the early states that he is no longer viable.
4. Mitt is viable but his unfavorability ratings have increased to the point he no longer represents a consensus choice.
5. A factional candidate like Ron Paul holds 10% or 15% of the delegates.

As of right now, these are all plausible. And if we factor in the assignment of delegates by porportion, this could well become inevitable.

Part of this is also George Will's warning that Ron Paul could run as a third party candidate who could siphon off 2% of the popular vote from the Republican nominee. As David Plouffe said, whoever is the Republican nominee should start with 47% of the vote. A two percent loss would be catastrophic since both sides believe this will be another incredibly close election.