Nate The Great Weighs in on Iowa

Nate Silver at his FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times is finished feeding all the numbers into his computer and weighing the possibilities for the Iowa Caucus.

Before Nate's findings Insider Advantage's poll from last night has Gingrich 27%, Paul 17%, Perry 13% and Romney at fourth with 12%. And for New Hampshire freaks it's Romney 32.3%, Gingrich at 24% and Ron Paul at 18.7%.

Nate explains his methodology, which weighs polls and reallocates averages and calculates momentum. Remember Nate was the star of the 2008 election nailing almost every primary with his funky ways.

His polling average has Gingrich at 25% and Mitt Romney at 15% in the Iowa polls.

Nate in his Vote Projection, which is the sum of the Reallocated Average and the Momentum factor, represents the best guess of how a candidate will do on election day. Nate's preduction is Gingrich at 25%, Paul at 21% and Romney at 16%.

So Nate then calculates the Win Probability, which combines the vote prokections and the uncertainty together to estimate how likely each candidate is win the caucuses.

So Newt's win probability is just under 50%. Ron Paul has gained ground and now has a 28% chance of winning. Romney, Perry and Bachmann are all between 5 and 10 %.

The question then would be is Newt and Paul get a little bounce heading to New Hampshire, where Romney is polling about the same as he did in 2008 before he moved there and adopted the state as his home. Now you can see how terrified the Republican establishment is because they have every right to be.