Now For The Other Side--The Case For Obama's Re-Election

Hearing Dick Cheney return from the grave to lambast President Obama for muffing the Iraq withdrawal, being soft on Iran and failing to blow up the drone captured by Iran, a charge repeated by Romney today, I needed a break and read Alexis Simendinger's piece in Real Clear Politics on the arguments David Axelrod and Jim Messina made the other day about why Obama will win re-election.

Also Today the PPP poll on Virginia showed that Obama has a healthy lead in the Commonwealth against both Romney and Gingrich, despite have an approval rating of about 46%.

If you are deterministic about elections, the high unemployment and the turbulent wins buffeting President Obama should doom his chances of re-election after the sky-high expectations when he took office. For the record, his first two years were the most productive of any President in my lifetime, surpassing LBJ and John F. Kennedy. Yet you would never know it from the media. And this month will end the Iraq War, which he campaigned to end and he did, but any praise he may deserve is overshadowed by the dead-enders like John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Dick Cheney who thought we could occupy that country forever.

But what are the arguments of Team Obama?

1. The Republican presidential candidates are "simply not in the mainstream on so many issues." The GOP contenders share the same trickle-down theory that governed the policies of the last decade and more importantly the 1920s and they led to disaster. We've already gotten a trial run of these ideas with the 2010 House Republicans who have yet to introduce legislation that would lead to the creation of any jobs.

2. The GOP primary calender could stretch well into 2012,which means that Republicans will be forced to champion right-wing positions far longer that they can not pivot to the general election in time. Messina noted that a full third of Republican delegates are at stake in May or June. David Axelrod said,"The longer this race goes the more you're going to see these Republican candidates mortgage their general election campaign to try to win the nomination."

3. Obama is the embattled incumbent. His team believes he can overcome high unemployment and low job approval by touting his policy achievements and experience to key constituencies; use the bully pulpit to impress on the public his jobs and economic message; sell a compelling vision for the future, and spar with an unpopular Congress to draw sharp contrasts and show some fight. Axelrod again commented that there exists a solid core for the President, some argue it is 44%, but a significant number of voters are up for grabs. But those voters do not have a positive view of today's Republican Party.

4. Obama intends to shore up support from his Democratic base with renewed passion on the issues affecting the Middle Class and the economy. By diving into the debate over extending the payroll tax holiday and extending the unemployment insurance ,the President hopes to reinforce the view that conservatives care about protecting the wealthy and special interests. Axelrod says that he doesn't think they will be punished for advocating for 160 million taxpayers.

5. To win in 2012, Obama intends to backstop his chances by plowing multiple paths to 270 electoral votes. I posted these five options the other day.

6.The President wants to enlarge the electorate as he did in 2008 but it could be more problematic this time because of the voter suppression legislation in many of the key swing states. Voter registration and a focus on shifting demographics are considered key. Also Messina noted that there are 8 million young Americans who weren't old enough to vote last time and their brothers and sisters started this and they're going to finish it."

7. Obama's campaign team has been building a ground force for the general election while the GOP canidates are focused on primaries. For example, the Obama campaign actually has more organizers on the ground in Iowa than the Republicans. When he starts the general campaign Obama will have more infrastructure in place in key states than his rival.

8. The president's campaign will once again target demographic groups, including African-Americans, Hispanics and young people. Asked about the independent voter who supported Obama but has shied away from him recently, Axelrod said these are still amenable to voting for the President, they have swung to the Republicans.

9. Axelrod said that the legislative and other battles in key states like the union-busting law in Ohio this year allowed the campaign to test theories about Democratic engagement and volunteer organizations. It was a trial run which produced helpful data and helped the creation of neighborhood teams.

10. The Obama campaign believes the president will have enough money and enough cutting-edge technology to outpace his challengers. The Third quarter saw him raise more than $70 million and this quarter should see $55 million with over 45% of the Obama's donors this cycle being new.

One failing I have noticed since Obama has been President is the failure at messaging. Almost all Americans have little knowledge about the string of his accomplishments. These rise up and gain notoriety for the mandated 15 minutes and then are forgotten. While President Obama did managed to brag a bit in his 60 Minutes interview it was clear he is uncomfortable about tooting his own horn. While I appreciate his team acting low-key in contrast to the screeching we hear from Republicans, sometimes I think all of them appear somnolent and not geared up for battle. I hope at some point they start sending out the zingers and have snappy comebacks.