Wednesday, December 28, 2011

IOWA CAUCUS--Who Cares?

++The recent polls still have Ron Paul on top with Romney running a close second. Newt has been pulverized by the negative campaigning. The only candidate with more favorables than unfavorables is Frothy Mix himself, Rick Santorum. But Rick doesn't appear to be picking up any steam.

++I really don't understand the whole hubbub about Ron Paul's racist newsletters. It's not secret and his racist views have been known for years. In this particular GOP race,it hardly counts as a negative since minorities, African-Americans, gays and Muslims have regaularly been bashed throughout the debates.

++In another who cares note--Arthur Laffer of the infamous Laffer Curve and Supply Side Economics will endorse Newt today. The whole parade is looking like a bad version of "Where Have They Gone--Political Has-Beens."

++Mitt has been spending in Iowa like a drunken Mormon. The last minute ad campaign in Iowa has cost all candidates and their Super-Pacs over $10 million. Mitt is hoping to land a knock-out blow and to re-establish his mantle of inevitability. Beltway pundits are marvelling at his stealth campaign and his discipline.

++Mitt's tax returns are becoming a little issue. The Boston Globe writers believe the reason for his refusal to release is because he benefits from the "Interest carry" loophole for equity fund managers. Romney still receives a seven-figure check from Bain Capital all these years after leaving it. His base tax rate is a stunningly low 15%, a fact that would provoke backlash since almost every American pays a higher rate. But another factor has emerged also to explain Romney's reticience about releasing his tax returns. Apparently, shortly before Romney started attacking China in the debates, he began to receive the payments for his investments in China. During his days at Bain Capital, he closed American businesses and got them to move their facilities to China, where the Chinese authorities bought part ownership. This little wrinkle to the story might explain why Jon Hunstman has quietly circulated rumors about Romney's business deals with China.

++If Romney doesn't release his tax returns, he will be the first major candidate since Watergate to refuse.

++Meanwhile Rick Perry has run an ad blitz in Iowa and has been emphasizing social conservative issues. Perry also has filed suit to get on the Virginia primary ticket. Perry is floating around the double-digits in Iowa and needs a third-place finish to rationalize continuing.

++National polls still have Newt in a slight lead over Mitt and Paul is third. Basically, this is turning into a two man race. The Mormon vulture capitalist versus the disgraced Speaker of the House and ethically challenged lobbyist. It's no wonder that the National Review and William Kristol are still crying out for a new candidate.

++The polls in New Hampshire show Romney with a sizeable lead. But the thing to look at there is whether Romney hits the level of support he had in 2008.

++Remember the nominee will be who wins South Carolina. So far Newt has the lead.

++While the Republican race makes one's skin crawl, I'll leave you with the political rumor of the day documented in a new book. Richard Nixon had a gay affair with Bebe Rebozo. You can't get seamier than that.

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