The Quinnipiac and PPP polls all indicate that Newt Ginrgich is in large leads in all primary states but New Hampshire, where he has pulled within single digits of Mitt Romney. The Fox News poll has Gingrich at 40% nationally against Romney--who still stays at his 23% level, the same place he has been for the entire campaign so far.
Mitt Romney is beginning to panic and claims he is making his closing arguments. But what looked inevitable is slip, sliding away. The Romney camp has made a $3.2 ad buy in Iowa. A recent Romney ad by the Super Pac associated with him made a blistering attack on Newt Gingrich accusing him of being for the individual health mandate, climate change,foreclosures, and corrupt. What's funny about the ad is that in all his policy attacks on Newt, Romney has held the same positions. The Romney camp no longer apologizes for their lying in ads but in fact brags about it. But Michael Steele, the former RNC Chairman, warned that attacking fellow Republicans doesn't make friends.
Meanwhile Romney has begun to give press interviews. The most revealing,I found, was the one he gave to the Washington Examiner. Perhaps thinking their audience is simply local and basically Republican, Romney was videotaped when asked about the European financial meltdown answered,"I don't know anything about economics. But Europe can sort out its own problems." A stunning admission for someone who has been running on the economy. The other question of Romney concerned the Healthcare Reform Act that Obama passed. Here the reporter actually did his homework and started grilling Romney over key components of the bill, which Romney wasn't aware of and admitted were actually good. The veneer of competency is being eroded the more Romney actually speaks on the record with someone who is somewhat informed.
One of the goofier statements by Romney was the one issued after President Obama's Kansas Speech on inequality. Romney, who clearly didn't listen to the speech, attacked Obama for trying to do away with our meritocracy and creating a society of entitlements. No such thing entered the speech unless you call social security, the minimum wage and healthcare for the elderly entitlements. In fact, President Obama kept stressing a meritocracy by emphasizing education as the means to the Middle Class.
Democrats couldn't believe their luck when Romney to distinguish himself from Newt Gingrich fully embraced Paul Ryan budget proposal, which would make Medicare a voucher plan. Newt had called it "right-wing social engineering" but was forced by conservatives to pull back from that statement. But Romney going for the Republican jugular on this embraced perhaps the most hated of Ryan's proposal, which would vastly increase medical bills for the elderly through Vouchercare.
Democrats have run more ads on Romney's chronic flip-flopping and the idea he is Gordan Gekko from Wall Street running for President. The Romney camp feel that by Mitt attacking Gingrich as a flip-flopper than he is innoculated from that accusation. As a cruel joke, leftwing bloggers posted a long statement by Romney as he explained John Kerry's flip-flopping in almost philosophical terms, which apply literally to him. The total lack of self-awareness of Romney during this campaign has been amazing.
Mitt Romney ran another ad with implicit criticism of Newt. This ad portrayed Romney as a man of constancy, who has been married to the same woman for forty plus years and served the same church all his lifetime. Romney is trying to play on the roughly 25% of Republican voters who think affairs disqualify you for the presidency. But the Christian Right has embraced Newt as a repented sinner and have a higher distrust of Mormons so the subtle attack ad doesn't appear to be working.
Conservative opinion-makers are openly expressing dismay about Newt and his various personality traits, raising questions about his suitability for the presidency. They are not flocking to Romney. In fact people like Bill Kristol and Erik Erickson are hoping very publically for a "dark horse" entry into the late or a "brokered convention". Although the primary calender does allow for a late entry, it is very imporbable this time.
But one conservative blogger says that the Republican base are judging the race on competency and authenticity and ,lastly, on likeability and electability. The base is registering that they overwhelmingly believe in Newt's competency and authenticity. While younger conservatives are dismayed about Newt, Richard Viguerie held a private meeting with Newt and some 60 representatives of conservative groups and the religious right. Reports have Newt receiving a standing ovation in the beginning and several times near the end. The conservative action committees are beginning to commit to Newt with all his baggage.
At the meeting Newt said he would challenge President Obama to a series of Lincoln-Douglas debates and he was confident that Obama would agree because of Obama's ego, having graduated from Columbia and Harvard Law and been a professor. If Obama didn't agree, Gingrich would follow the President around and give a speech answering every one of Obama's. The conservatives loved it because they feel that Newt can actually get the better of President Obama.
Newt appeared at an event sponsored by the Republican Jewish Coalition and dropped a bombshell, saying he would appoint John Bolton as his Secretary of State with the mandate to clean out the Foreign Service and replace it with entrepeneurial types and those committed to freedom. The event was followed by conference calls by a hastily arranged group of national security advisers, who range from old Reaganites to Jim Woolsey, the former CIA chief under Clinton.
Meanwhile even Donald Trump seems to be bowing out of his own debate as everyone except Gingrich and Santorum have declined his invitation.
Right now the GOP race looks like the Clash of the Titans but don't discount Rick Perry, who has gone fruity to pick up the Christian Right vote in Iowa. Perry is about to embark on an all-Iowa bus tour and released an ad that brought more thumbs down on Youtube than any one so far. Perry is seen walking down a country path wearing the same jacket Heath Ledger did in Brokeback Mountain. Perry laments that gays can serve openly in the military while prayer is not allowed in school, which actually it is. Proclaiming his Christianity, he denounces Obama's "War against Religion", a theme he has picked up the last few days. Laughable or not, Perry has been inching up in the Iowa polls to double digits after a slump to 6%.
The protest vote in Iowa is going to be picked up by Ron Paul. Paul is viewed as having the best and most motivated organization. Paul has had an internet presence for a long time and an incredibly ability to launch Money Bombs that net him millions in 24 hours. Paul is the only candidate that is actively campaigning among the first-time voters. Yesterday, speaking on a campus, he said the Bush Administration had been in positive glee over 9/11 because they knew they could go to war in Iraq. He told the students that the party had been taken over by a bunch of fanatics who now want war with Iran. Last time his anti-war message resonated among the young and his Crusade for Liberty made inroads among college students. But what is disturbing about this is not Ron Paul's positions, it is that he is the only Republican who actually considers the younger voter. None of the rest have made any attempt to persuade the young, which says alot about the demographics of the Republican base.
Karl Rove is beside himself. Rove has launched an all-out war against Newt Gingrich pointing out that he didn't make the ballot for the Ohio primary and can't go the distance because he lacks an organization. You know Karl is going crazy because his organization Cross-Hairs America changed their ad campaign against Elizabeth Warren as someone who inspires Occupy Wall Street to new ads that claim she is in bed with the bankers. There is no better example of Rovian politics than this. But the ads have managed to increase Dr. Warren's name recognition and provoked support for her so she is now 6% ahead of Scott Brown, who has more than $11 million in his war chest from Wall Street and bankers. But watch out, this year's campaign is going to be the filthiest we have seen in my lifetime. It is going to make 2010 look like a picnic.
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