Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo this morning has a piece worth reading about how the primary calender has Romney in trouble. If you read yesterday's post, Nate Silver commented that if Newt and Romney start going negative on each other then the Republicans might end up with two candidates that were unacceptable both to the base and to the establishment.
Today's Intratrade pushed Romney down to 44.6% of winning the nomination and Newt rising.
Romney this morning suggested that Newt pay back the funds he received from Freddie Mac and Newt responded that maybe Romney should return the millions he made from Bain Capital by bankrupting companies. Romney then pulled out the CEO of Staples, the one company Romney brags about saving, to say that Newt "has no idea how the real world works." A curious statement from a Romney surrogate since Romney has been the one most tagged with not understanding the life of everyday Americans. So the negative wars have started and the Nate Silver scenario, which he said was plausible and seemed more of a nice intellectual exercise, looks more real by the moment.
Remember Romney's popularity in politics has never increased, its always decreased. In the 2008 cycle, he lost 17 out of 22 primaries. His only political win was once for the Governor of Massachusetts and observers said that he could not win another turn because his popularity had plunged to new depths.
As we have said before the way Republican delegates are allocated make this primary season a long slough. But the earliest part of the primary calender may force questions about Romney's viability in the long run.
In Iowa, even with a divided field, Romney has been stuck between the teens and twenties. In 2008, he made a major push to win, ending up with only 25% of the vote. If Gingrich hangs together through Iowa, then he would be the anti-Mitt the base has been hoping for.
New Hampshire is the firewall for Romney, his Granite fortress . But remember it is only worth 12 delegates. Romney has led every poll this cyccle but his plurality is in the middle and upper 30%, just above his 32% showing in 2008. He lost 2008 to John McCain.
Then next up is South Carolina with 25 delegates where Josh Marshall believes it can really get ugly, especially with evangelicals looking askance at Romney's Mormonism. Right now Gingrich is leading South Carolina with landslide numbers.
Then we go to Florida, worth 50 delegates. Romney has spent alot of time building an organization in the state and McCain won this last time by 36-31%. But now polls have Gingrich leaping ahead of Romney by 52-34%. In other words, Romney has slightly improved his showing four years ago but not by much.
Then we get to February, where theoretically Romney should do better. But with a strong of defeats behind him will this affect his electoral performance. February 4th starts with the Nevada caucuses, where he won in 2008 by a landslide because of the sizeable Mormon vote in the state. Then the Maine caucuses, which he won last time but this time he has to face the teaparty faction, which has dominated the state's politics since 2010. And then off to Minnesota, where Tim Pawlenty's endorsement should tip the scales and the Colorado Caucuses, where Gingrich now has the edge.
So Romney doesn't really get a break until the Michigan primary for 30 delegates and the Arizona primary. Michigan is his home state and his father was an excellent Governor. In Arizona, Romney has a tough race with Gingrich but rumors have John McCain sugegsting he will endorse Romney. Will McCain's endorsement give Romney the win? Who knows?
Today, Romney told Politico that Newt indeed was the front-runner. He had never admitted any of his competitors have been front-runners until now. In one way, he is trying to pressure Gingrich with this title but also he has to mount a compelling counter-narrative for a long hard race.
We will be watching to see whether the Republican establishment comes in strong with endorsements to stop the bleeding after South Carolina and Florida or whether other personalities will be encouraged to run. But Josh Marshall is right--it will be a tough first two months for Romney and the mantle of inevitability looks slightly tattered right now
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