Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Frothy Mix Sweeps--It's Santorum's Night

Intrade put Obama's chances of winning re-election today at 60%, while Willard was at 33%. Tonight revealed Romney's weakness--he hasn't won in the Midwest, where the GOP needs a strong showing.

Romney and his surrogates tried to downplay this night but held out hope for Colorado, which at this hour doesn't look good for him. While non-binding the Missouri primary showed up Willard's weakness. Without Newt in the race, Romney lost handily to a man who slept with dead babies. Not only that but as Mr. Invitable, how do you lose to a man without an organization or money? In fact, Romney's attacks the last two days on Santorum as not conservative enough badly back-fired. Santorum has recently modeled himself a working man hero, unlike Willard. And this seemed to pay off.

The interesting story is that Ron Paul's strategy of playing caucus states has been working for him, as he looks to net second in Minnesota. Tim Pawlenty tried to down play Minnesota, his home state, saying that caucus goers always gravitate to the most conservative.

The big surprise so far is the lackluster performance of Romney in the early returns in Colorado. Colorado seemed to be a state where Romney would do well. But as the night unfolds, he doesn't seem to b doing well anywhere. In Missouri, he lost in total votes to Barack Obama, who was running uncontested. Minnesota--he'll be lucky to finish third.

While tonight's contests seem unimportant, they do demonstrate that Willard has not made the sale. And it furthers the argument that anywhere he campaigns, he loses popularity, not gains it. It will be interesting to see how Willard fares when the race goes back South. Santorum is off to Texas tomorrow to gin up some money.

Remember Missouri was a decent state for Romney last time but his vote count looks much less today.

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