Mittmomentum

Romney tried to erase the dismal showing in the Midwest by defeating Ron Paul in the Maine caucus and winning the CPAC straw poll for the first time in his career.

Only Romney and Paul travelled to Maine. Paul banked on the libertarian-tea party streak in the party to upset Romney, who won the 2008 contest with 50%. Again, the raw votes were smaller and Romney's victory of 39% to Paul 36% was much slimmer. Ron Paul appeared jaunty in explaining to his followers that it was a virtual tie and was confident he would have the bulk of the delegates by the time of the convention.

In fact, it is probable that the results of the Caucus will be reversed within weeks because the Eastern Part of the state had not been counted when the network projections had been made. This area of Maine has hard-core Paul voters.

Rick Santorum has cried foul at the CPAC poll. For the first time they used electronic machines and coincidentally Romney wins for the first time among the hard core right. Santorum asked questions about how the Romney camp manipulated the results. He was joined by Ron Paul, the winner of the pervious polls, who also decried the Maine Caucus.

With all of that, Romney now rests where he has since the beginning--at about 23% of the GOP voters. PPP showed again that Santorum retains the Non-Mitt mantle at 38%, Romney at 23%, Gingrich at 17% and Ron Paul at 13%. Santorum is now borrowing a leaf from the Newt book, proclaiming it is now a two-man race. Most observers know that Ron Paul is not running for the nomination but to get his libertarian ideas anchored in the party and to win a spot at the Convention.

Sister Sarah Palin energized the CPAC crowd and said she was not convinced of Romney's born-again conservatism. She also said that the prolonged nomination fight would strengthen the GOP's chances in 2012.

Well, if anything they have no strengthened Romney. The most recent Fox News poll shows Obama taking a 5% lead against Romney, the largest to date in their records.

Steve Singiser over at the Daily Kos conducted a thought exercise of comparing two polls from the same outfit in key states and found that Romney improved in only two states--Arizona and New York. Romney only gained 1 pt in New York, which is overwhelmingly for Obama. Of the 11 states, six worth 85 electoral votes had either been deadlocked or leaning to Romney, today Obama has nominal leads.

Here is the list:

Arizona--Romney by 43 to 37

California--Obama by 60 to 31

Florida--Obama now at 47 to 44

Michigan--Obama now at 48 to 44.

North Carolina--Obama at 47-46

New Hampshire--Obama at 50 to 40

New Jersey--Obama 48-35

New York--Obama 58-35

Ohio--Obama 49-42

Pennsylvania--41 to 30

Virginia--47 to 43.

One of the reasons for Obama's re-emergence is that he has enjoyed his first complete month in a while where his approvals surpass his disapproval ratings.The Obama campaign has started putting the pedal to the metal in creating a Truth Squad for this election , like last time. But this squad will be emphasizing Obama's record and combating disinformation about his policies. Last time, it countered everything from birtherism to Bill Ayres and ACORN.

So the Intratrade odds have now put Obama's re-election at 63%, the first time he has been there since the beginning of his term