Update on Nate Silver's Predictions

Nate Silver claims that the Rick Santorum surge is holding ten days after his victories in Minnesota and Colorado. His Gallup poll is improving slightly and his national poll ratings are holding steady.

Silver still has Santorum winning Michigan by 40.5% to 32.7% over Romney and his odds at 76%. But what I found astonishing is that Silver gives Santorum a 93% chance of winning Ohio on March 6. He projects his total at 45.7%.

What is this astonishing? Because if Romney gets wipes out in the Midwest, he simply is not a viable candidate. Nate has done work on Romney's electability and says that in a general election Romney is worth 3% more than Santorum and his odds right now in a general election are 40%.

Nate says that Romney trails Obama in the Midwest by 11%. This is fatal. The reason is that only 42% of whites earning less than $30,000 would vote for Romney. In 2008, 46% of them voted for John McCain.

There must be something to the story by Jon Karl, who quoted a senior GOP senator saying that if Romney loses Michigan he will call for the party to find a new candidate.

Michigan and Arizona are on February 28.

Ohio and Georgia are on March 6.

The odds only favor Romney for Arizona but his campaign in Arizona is now embroiled in the gay scandal with Paul Babeu. Newt is banking on Georgia to get back in the race.

Losses in two large Midwest states would be a crippling blow to Mr. Inevitable.