The Greenberg group tracks what they call the Rising American electorate, which is composed of unmarried women,young voters and minorities. This nationwide poll surveys the entire electorate but stresses the comeback of these groups to the Democratic fold after staying out in 2010. They have come back in a big way, almost at the levels of the 2008 election to the Democratic Party and President Obama.
The Greenberg group says that congressional elections this year are interwoven with the presidential contest and that the changes they observe in this poll are big and can be fundamental in shifting the direction of the electorate for the future.
Besides the return of the Rising American electorate,seniors, who had given the GOP the benefit of the doubt in 2010, are now leaning back toward the Democrats. The Greenberg group says that the GOP is now in negative territory, almost 52% of the electorate views them negatively and they claim that Romney is on the edge of "political death". As for President Obama, while some view him negatively, he basically is on track to repeating his 2008 performance.
Democratic Party identification is now at 39% of the public, up seven points since last year's survey. Among the Rising Americans, the identification has shot up five points in the last month.
Fifty-four percent of Americans view the GOP negatively and 52% of independents. This is the worst the GOP has ranked since 2008. An amazing 68% disapprove of the Republicans in Congress, which is a twenty-two point increase in less than a year. A year ago seniors gave the GOP a 45-43 approval rating on the Hill but now seniors disapprove of congressional Republicans by two-thirds and only 28% approve of them. Last year, only 45% of independents disapproved and now it is a stunning 71%.
If you remember the polling of Mark Penn during the last election, he made the argument that the future of the Democratic party would be in the affluent suburbs. That's why he attacked Obama on his tax policy. The Greenberg group finds that there has been massive movement toward the Democrats in the suburbs. 60% now identify themselves as Democrats or Democratic leaning, while only 33% are Republicans.
Another stunning conclusion of the poll is that, frankly,the Republicans do not have a viable candidate. Romney has 47% negatives in their poll and they are climbing and 32% very negative. Less than half the Republicans view him positively. Over half independents view him negatively. Romney's standing according to Greenberg is worse than John McCain's was in 2008.
On Santorum, less than one-third of voters view him positively.
Obama stands at 49% approval rating and his support is much deeper and broader than Romney's. Among the American Rising group his support is growing, while among the rest of Americans it remains static. Unmarried women support Obama by 65-30, while married women (before the recent contraceptive debate) support Romney by 9 points. Among younger voters, Obama has a 55 to 43 lead. Among Hispanics he has a 16 point lead.
So how does the debate over reproductive rights come out. First of all, Planned Parenthood has a favorable rating of 52 and a negative of 32. It is more popular than the NRA. By 52 to 26 voters support the Democrat's positions on women's issues. A large 49% plurality support Obama on the contraceptive mandate. Two-thirds of suburban voters do and 61% of single women. Amon seniors, Obama enjoys a 36 point lead of this issue and among unmarried a stunning 47 point edge.
On the issue of taxes, Democrats have turned the corner and now enjoy a 10 pt lead over the Republican position.
Despite temporary setbacks in the economy or other issues, the Greenberg poll suggests that the structural change people anticipated in the last presidential election is really upon us after the regression of the mid-terms.
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