Yahoo's Signal Predicts Obama Re-election

Using a model based on past elections, economic indicators, approval ratings,incumbency and measures of state ideology,

the Yahoo staff of social scientists--they really have them--predict that President Obama will win 303 electoral votes and the Republican nominee will 235 votes.

The model assumes that economic trends are more important than the actual state of the economy and that Obama will have roughly the same approval rating through June. You can look this up on The Signal.

While everyone has written off Indiana, I found it interesting that Obama loses North Carolina, Missouri and Florida. He wins Virginia and Ohio. I would guess he wins Florida if Romney is the nominee.

So basically the Yahoo model dovetails with Greenberg's findings that Obama will win with roughly the same amount and same electoral votes--give or take one state.