Romney Wins Nevada--Sort Of

Mitt Romney won Nevada with less than 50%. Republican turnout was lower than 2008 and only 35,000 voted or approximately 10% of the GOP in the state. Only Romney and Ron Paul advertised in the state, since Newt is gearing up for Super Tuesday.

The Nevada victory solidified the notion that Romney is the front-runner but it didn't do much more than that.

The lack of enthusiasm should alarm Republicans. Voter participation in the primaries and caucuses so far have been lower than in 2008 around the board. To give you some idea of what this means, Romney's vaunted victory in New Hampshire , his new home state, should be measured by the recent New Hampshire poll, which shows Barack Obama beating Romney there by double digits in a general election.

Beltway pundits are writing that Romney is picking up the Tea Party support and conservatives after Nevada. Well,that's true if conservatives are Mormons. 26% of the Nevada voters were Mormon and Romney won 91% of them. Keep in mind, there are only 7% Mormons in the whole state.

The demographics of the primaries and caucuses should be dispiriting. In 2008, 88% of the primary voters were white, this year it has topped 90%. In Nevada last time 8% of GOP voters were Latino and now with a Latino Governor it was 5%. For all the mention of Israel and the Jewish vote, it was identical to last time--2%. For the youth (17-29 age group), last time it was 11% and this year it was 8%.

So far, Romney has not won a thoroughly Republican state. Gingrich won South Carolina and Florida has been trending Democrat in general elections. Even New Hampshire is purple.