Let's Just Pile On

Nate "The Great" Silver has an excellent post on Romney's need to get a "base" citing the data now coming in from Michigan. At his FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times, Nate also projects the odds for the next Republican primaries. It really isn't looking so good for Willard. Not to say for anyone else, either. But Mr. Inevitable only looks like he is going to win Arizona--probably because he has the architect of their anti-immigration bill as a close adviser.

Nate did say that Ron Paul will probably not win the Maine Caucus because he needs 194 votes. How many votes were cast in the Eastern section in 2008--a total of 113. Close but no cigar to Ron Paul.

Yes, the Romney people admitted they bought up a lot of the CPAC tickets so that their candidate would win the CPAC Straw Poll.

But Nate has his little box of odds for the next primaries. It looks like a long road unless other candidates run out of money.

Arizona--Romney at 89%

Michigan--Santorum at 80%. The polling data is devastating for Romney right now.

Georgia--Newt at 75%

Ohio-- Newt at 39%

Romney at 37%.

Let's just say that Willard doesn't win Michigan or Ohio. That means he has lost throughout the Midwest where the GOP candidate has to be competitive to challenge Obama in electoral votes. With the East Coast heading toward Obama land and the West Coast already there, the options of winning the presidency demand a solid Midwest showing or else the chances soon become none. Last election, the key area was a line from Minnesota to Pennsylvania. This time this might be less problematic for Obama but it still remains critical for the GOP. And that--frankly--was why the establishment lined up behind Romney. Son of the Governor of Michigan, former Governor of Massachusetts and Savior of the Utah Olympics, this would prove to be problematic for Obama to win this arc.

But if Willard doesn't win his home state and his home county where he grew up, then serious questions have to be raised about his viability as a major candidate.

Perhaps Thomas Friedman, writing in the New York Times, is right, the GOP should take a by this presidential year and come back and think about it again. Even with the voter suppression, which might cost Obama millions of votes,if Mitt can't pick up some Midwest action, he is doomed.