The 269-269 Tie--The Path to 270

I will leave the Supreme Court hearings today for another time. Oh,by the way, Santorum won Louisiana and Mitt only won those earning over $250,000. But it's clear that Bishop Willard will be the nominee and vie to become the Fourth Mormon, that person who brings Mormonism into the establishment.


So to encourage Willard's fans, Steve Singiser of the Daily Kos has worked up a scenario where the electoral college could end in a 269-269 tie. Singiser writes that as of today President Obama holds every state he won in 2008 with the exception of Indiana and the electoral vote in Nebraska. However, the margins are tight. He averaged the last five polls, where available, to determine that there are six states where the lead is less than 5 points. Together they total 78 votes and if Romney swung the nation four points he would win them. 


Those states are North Carolina,Florida,Nevada,Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire. 


Of course, if the nation moved in another direction, Obama would pick up Arizona, Missouri and Indiana,as well as the above six.


Even though we are in the first quarter--I know, it feels like three years,and lots will go on before the general election,President Obama has a pretty solid base. If you count states where he has a 10+ lead,they are 201 electoral votes or 74% of those he needs. Compare that with Willard with a lead of 10+ in states adding up to 71 votes.


So let's take a look:


Obama has a 10+ lead in states adding up to 201 electoral votes
Obama has a 5-10 point lead in states adding up to 68votes. Those are Wisconsin,Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado
(So Obama is at 269)
Obama with a lead of less than 5 in states adding up to 78 electoral votes. They are New Hampshire,Ohio,Iowa,Nevada, Florida and North Carolina. (I should add that the latest polling in New Hampshire and Ohio show far greater Obama leads.)


Romney leads with less than 5 points in states totaling 32 votes.
Romney leading in states with 5-10pts totaling 88 votes
Romney leading in states with 10+pts totaling 71 votes.


While in this scenario, Romney could get to 269,look at Obama position. Let's say he loses five out of six of those where he leads with less than 5%, he wins the election.  Romney's path to 270 at this moment is not hopeful if the best one can come up with is a 269-269 tie. And that's if all things fall Romney's way.


Also remember that Obama wins if the economy averages 155,000 jobs per month. Obama wins if he gets 52% of the woman's vote. 


The unknown factor is the role that Republican SuperPacs will play. Also, how successful will voter suppression efforts succeed this election?