Slightly Deeper Look at the Pew Poll

The Pew Poll is worth digging into if you have the time to wade through 60+ pages of findings. I was interested in how it tracked with The Emergent America poll by Greenberg. Does it show the original coalition that supported President Obama coming together and what groups are beyond his persuasion.

President Obama beats Romney with men by 49 to 46. Romney leads Obama by eight points among white men 52-44.

President Obama beats Romney 58 to 38% with women and this is likely to grow.

Among younger voters 18 to 29, President Obama beats Romney by 63% to 35%.

This number for the young is important because it has been true that the first vote cast will determine a person's voting record for a generation. President Reagan basically had the same young vote in his time.

Among Blacks,President Obama wins with a 99 to 1 vote.

The Pew poll disappoints or I am too lazy to find the Hispanic vote. His approval rating among Hispanics is in the mid-60s. Among all people of color, President Obama has a 83 to 13 edge over Willard.

The only age cohort that Romney does well against President Obama is the 65+ group where both men are tied.

According to religion, President Obama wins the Catholic vote but loses the fundamentalist.

The Democratic Party has a 49% favorable rating against 36% for Republicans. For women, Democrats have a favorable 54% and 38% for Republicans. This is a huge gender gap as I've pointed out in writing about other polls.

Finally, 59% say President Obama will win re-election.

What is interesting is when they come to Santorum. 46% of Republicans believe Santorum would beat Obama. But 43% say that Obama would beat Santorum.

60% of Republicans believe that Romney would beat Obama.

So if you write off women, Hispanics, Blacks, the young, then you have to rely on a massive white male vote to be competitive. Republicans usually do better than Democrats on this score but in Romney's case he would have to soar into the mid-60s or beyond. He's at 52 right now.