Sunday, March 29, 2015

The Reactions Will Be Swift

++John Boehner has already said the House will not honor the Iran deal. 

++But Haaretz noted that Bibi's alienation of the Black Caucus make it virtually impossible for Boehner to muster up the 2/3rds needed to stop the deal. The same is being said about the Senate where it says that the Tehran Tom letter was seen as inspired by Bibi to attack President Obama. 

++With Chuck Schumer to be elevated by Harry Reid,some of the wind may have gone out of the Democrats too oppose the deal.

++I have to saw that the failure of the GOP to understand multilateralism sure flash warning signs to anyone considering voting for them in 2016. The unilateral world where the United States could be a hyper power disappeared rather rapidly minutes after America invaded Iraq. 

++It is simply not that world anymore.

++Bibi told his cabinet that the Iran-Laussane-Yemen Axis (Calling David Frum) is a threat to humanity. That's almost like Saddam Hussein having centrifuges the size of washing machines.

++The Washington Post yesterday raised concerns that Iran has not answered the IAEA questions about parts of the Iranian program from the early 2000s about the military aspect of their nuclear research. They quoted approvingly David Albright of CSIS about  the weakness of the agreement. 

++Maybe we can invade Iran for not having a nuclear weapon.

++One thing to point out--the lifting of the sanctions will benefit the Iranian military and the companies which they own. While the Iranian people will be relieved about the deal dissatisfaction will settle in and the Iranian people within a short time may resort to the Green revolution again. 

++The Obama Administration is playing the long game. It feels the Supreme Leader is mortally ill and that the fight over a successor will either paralyze the country's political elite or lead to real reform. Bibi is betting that Iran will go farther hard-line.

++Meanwhile in Egypt, the Arab League is forming a regional ground force. Putin sent the meeting a letter about stability on the region. The Saudi Foreign Minister responded that there can be no stability while he supports Assad in Syria.

++Patrick Cockburn writing in the Independent says the Saudi offensive in Yemen will not be the Decisive victory they want and that the stage is set for a full-out Sunni-Shiite war across the Middle east. 

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