Thursday, April 23, 2015

TPP And Fast Track

++Someone at a progressive website asked a question,"If TPP is NAFTA on steroids,why would President jeopardize his legacy after healthcare, his moves on the environment, strengthening the Labor Relations Board, and fighting for the middle class?"

++We know the flap going on with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders opposing Fast Track. Elizabeth Warren appearing on the Rachel Maddow  Show said that Fast Track extends to 2018 and into 220 and while she would love a Democratic President and Senate,that is not certain and the next President could  negotiate this and other deals. She says that TPP has been negotiated with 28 different committees representing American corporations and their lobbyists.

++So why would President Obama want this? I am agnostic about all trade deals since we have seen how damaging they have been to our manufacturing base and ,in NAFTA's case, to Mexico's agricultural base.

++Ezra Klein posted his views at VOX. Ezra says he is also an agonistic but wanted to ask Paul Krugman-like questions about the deal. He has been talking to administrative officials about this. 

++They say that President Obama is saying that this pact corrects what went wrong in NAFTA--the Canadian  and Mexican government is involved. It provides labor and environmental standards.They say the final document counts and that it is better than the alternatives. 

++They claim the problems with trade pacts in the past pre-dated the rise of China's economic clout and that Beijing is pushing for weaker labor and environmental laws. Larry Summers says that TPP must be seen against a wold in which trade integration is already happening with or without the United States. So, it's either a trade deal with America at the core or else China.

++Ezra says that the TPP is central to Obama's pivot to Asia. That he sees economic policy as an effective tool of statecraft. The argument is that it is a put up or shut up moment for America. If the talks collapse, then US leadership in Asia will be questioned.

++We aren't trying to save our manufacturing base. That's gone but we are trying to protect our IT base and that's the reason the United States is fighting for our intellectual property rights. Krugman thinks this section goes too far and will make the world in general poorer.

++As for transparency, both House and Senate committees regularly hold hearings on sections of the agreement. Ezra has a point--even where there is transparency,only politically sophisticated and highly motivated actors can understand the process. 

++AS for currency manipulation, the U.S. Treasury has warned Congress you don't want to go there because our own FED policies.

++It's obvious that this is beyond my pay grade. From a geopolitical perspective, it makes sense since President Obama wants to take away the military dominance in our foreign policy and China and Russia have made moves to coordinate a trade policy for Eurasia.

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