Monday, June 30, 2014

You Have A Caliphate if you can keep it

++Isis, the Al Qaeda off shoot, has declared themselves an Islamic Caliphate, demanding complete obedience from all Muslims the world over.Al-Baghdadi, the leader, now has ginned up a genealogy tracing his roots back to Mohammed.

++This forming a Caliphate raises some basic questions. Will the Sunnis, the Iraqi tribes and the former soldiers of Saddam Hussein,accept total obedience to their allies? What about Al Qaeda? What will be its response be to an offshoot claiming to be a Caliphate? 

++ISIS attacked the historic Shiite mosque near Samarra because it considers such mosques as heretical and idolatry. But the Islamic Caliphate doesn't control the two great Sunni mosques in Saudi Arabia, which historically were under control of the Caliphate. What will Saudi Arabia's response going to be to a group that challenges their theocratic authority? We already know that Iran is pouring funds and weapons into Iraq to counter attack ISIS. Tehran said they would use the same tactics as they did in Syria. And to top it off, ISIS brands Tehran's Islam heretical and picks a theological fight with them.

++Now we have a strange alliance against ISIS. Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia,Jordan and Kuwait. Russian troops arrived yesterday as did the old Soviet jet fighters. President Obama sent more troops today to Iraq, bringing the total up to nearly 1,000. Both Iran and the United States are conducting drone strikes against ISIS separately. And, I forgot the Assad regime in Syria joined the alliance by bombing Iraq at Maliki's say-so. And yet,while we are sort of allies with Assad's Syria, we have resolved to spend $300 million to train "moderate" Syrians to topple Assad.

++If this is confusing, it is. With everyone joining in an unofficial alliance,everyone has heavily suggested that al-Miliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, should step down. Even Ayatollah al-Sistani has called for a government of inclusion with heavy hints, as heavy as he talks,for Maliki to be replaced. This was supposed to happen today and it didn't. Nor does anyone believe that anything would change if he went. 

++For his part, Maliki insists he will not step down and that he will fight to protect Baghdad.

++Meanwhile the Caliphate seems to adroitly use the social media recruiting new members from Europe and the United States. But only a handful of people attended the great announcement of the new Caliphate in Syria.

++The situation is so puzzling, it is impossible to predict its future. Stay tuned.

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