Bibi--The Least Important Player on the Iran Chessboard

++David W. Drezner believes there is only a 40% chance of the Iranian deal actually being implemented. He has written why in prior columns.

++But, tonight he writes about why he believe bibi Netanyahu is the least important figure in the debate right now.

++Bibi has shot his wad. He has spent four days after the deal ramping up his rhetoric , making high-risk, unrelated demands. All this does is further weaken his credibility.

++He has already rallied Republicans to his cause. The White House has basically written off what he says anymore and simply realize he can not come around. And there are no more persuadables left. 

++Hillary Clinton's approval of the deal and tonight petitions from Madeleine Albright and Zbig bolster President Obama's case. Democrats in Congress can also pointed to the favorable impressions of GOP analysts. Col. Wilkinson was on the Ed Show praising the agreement as something truly historic on the order of Nixon to China,George H. W. Bush's support for reunifying Germany and keeping it in NATO, and Jimmy Carter's Camp David Accords. 

++As of tonight, not enough Democrats have switched to Corker's bill to make it veto-proof. 

++The polling is clear. Americans overwhelmingly favor the negotiations but also overwhelmingly doubt that Iran's commitment to any agreement.

++And, remember, President Obama hasn't even begun to make his sales pitch. 

++Bibi will be lobbying intensely against the Deal, but he is increasingly running out of ammo. 

++Drezner repeats what I have heard from military experts that an Israeli attack on Iran is dubious. It is not a simple pinprick operation and could not be done without American help. 

++Bibi is left with lobbying other members of the P5+1 countries. I believe he was successful with Francois Hollande to raise the ARAK issue. But he's not very popular among the others. I doubt his recent membership in the new Chinese infrastructure bank will bring him support on this issue. China is most eager to swoop into Iran and secure their oil.

++Bibi is not likely to encourage the Saudis to develop their own nuclear program because ultimately this would not be in Israel's interest. Even stirring up local regional struggles doesn't have the payoff he desires.

++So now the Senate wants to make it the same as a treaty, which would require a 2/3rds vote. Frankly, I am skeptical about this approach because of the multinational nature of the agreement and the importance of the UN Security Council to the whole deal. 

++Drezner's analysis is interesting and I am sure not welcomed back in Israel.