Friday, April 3, 2015

Deal With This

++Before the Iran deal gets covered to death, do yourself a favor a watch the little clip by the Young Turks posted on Democratic Underground.

++Cenk very precisely goes through the key details of the deal. The Obama Administration would do well if they emulated this type of exposition to both Congress and the public.

++When Cenk lays it out, you realize that the P5+1 took Iran downtown. I worry that by June Iran is going to wake up and realize they've been had. 

++This deal forces Iran back to its first generation centrifuges and all others  will be mothballed according to IAEA requirements. Enrichment will be confined to only one facility--Natanz--and their underground enrichment facility--which was built to withstand bunker buster bombs will be converted into a medical research facility with international exchange scientists. Arak, the Plutonium plant,gets converted and the plutonium gets shipped out of the country like  happened in Kazakstan. 

++Cenk does a great job explaining the various time-frames from 10 years,15 years, and 25 years. In short, if this deal is implemented correctly, I would be long gone from Planet Earth before Iran ever got near a bomb.

++You should realize the seriousness of our accomplishment when right upfront, Cenk explains Iran will be restricted to enriching uranium to 3.6%. A nuclear device calls for 90%.  Iran has only gotten to 26% so far.

++The whole idea of the negotiation was to create a scenario where Iran is forced to prove their frequent claims that their nuclear program is for civilian use only and ensure it will alway be thus. Incredibly we've done that. 

++Now I understand Iran's late demands on "modernization of centrifuges  and research and development", which looks like a dodge to have an out for military development. We had forced them backwards several generations of centrifuges or about twenty years of technology. If I were head of their atomic program, I would be concerned at such a loss. 

++The other aspect of the deal is that inspectors follow the food-chain from uranium mine to processing to the manufacture  of the centrifuges. So the entire process of their nuclear program is observed.

++This is truly an incredible deal and unprecedented in the nuclear field. Maybe we can encourage Bibi to denounce it until it is signed in June so the Iranians don't wake up about the true nature of what they agreed to.

++ That's why this deal has to be sold to the Hill quietly with Cenk's talking points. Remember Iraq's WMDs. The frustrating thing about Saddam Hussein was his refusal to allow intrusive verification. We found out after his capture that Saddam feared being shown weak and that he had none so this would not deter Iran from invading. And we ended up with our own debacle. 

++Even if the Republicans screw this up, Americans should know that this was as good a deal we could have had and through it ensured Iran's nuclear program would be peaceful for decades to come. 

++The agenda of the critics is very clear and menacing to all of us. I fear it is too clever by half and beyond the comprehension of our political folk.

++The biggest pitfall ,if implemented, is Money. The cost of such a long-term intrusive inspection will seem prohibitive to countries practicing austerity economics. Just look at the perpetual shortfalls in funding the humanitarian crises in the region itself,despite UN pledge drives. 

++We will probably be able to fund the first few years because it is a hot issue of mutual security but in the outyears attention will fade, other priorities intrude, and people will forget it was a major issue at the time.

++For now, I think it is an incredible agreement. I hope it comes to fruition. 

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